DKNG Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 30 trades in period
-4.74%
Year to Date Return
$7,472.75
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$7,844.85
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.5 oversold
20d Trend
-25.9%
5d Trend
-7.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
5.3%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality
4.3/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 4.2
30-Day Momentum
14
+2.2%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.3
Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,868
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$7,844.85
Current Value
$7,472.75
Period P&L
$-372.08
Max Drawdown
-50.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
12 /
18
Best Trade
+5.80%
Worst Trade
-4.34%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
2.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$435,626.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-372.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$-372.08
Gross Return
-4.74%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.74%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 DKNG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $7,844.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 2:45pm ET | $34.23 | 227 | $7,770.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $36.07 | 227 | $8,187.89 | $8,203.09 |
+$417.68 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:40am ET | $36.23 | 226 | $8,187.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 3:45pm ET | $35.08 | 226 | $7,928.08 | $7,943.19 |
$-259.90 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 2:45pm ET | $36.06 | 220 | $7,933.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.53 | 220 | $7,595.50 | $7,605.49 |
$-337.70 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:30am ET | $34.18 | 222 | $7,587.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 11:00am ET | $35.97 | 222 | $7,985.34 | $8,002.87 |
+$397.38 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $32.60 | 245 | $7,985.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $31.40 | 245 | $7,691.78 | $7,708.87 |
$-294.00 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:25am ET | $31.78 | 242 | $7,689.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 11:25am ET | $30.79 | 242 | $7,449.97 | $7,469.29 |
$-239.58 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 11:25am ET | $30.34 | 246 | $7,462.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 2:50pm ET | $29.42 | 246 | $7,237.32 | $7,244.20 |
$-225.09 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $27.44 | 264 | $7,244.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:25am ET | $26.61 | 264 | $7,026.36 | $7,026.40 |
$-217.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:05pm ET | $27.42 | 256 | $7,018.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $26.32 | 256 | $6,737.92 | $6,746.08 |
$-280.32 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $26.78 | 251 | $6,721.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $27.14 | 251 | $6,810.89 | $6,835.18 |
+$89.10 (+1.3%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $21.22 | 322 | $6,832.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $22.35 | 322 | $7,196.70 | $7,199.04 |
+$363.86 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:05pm ET | $23.33 | 308 | $7,184.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $22.62 | 308 | $6,966.96 | $6,981.90 |
$-217.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.6h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $22.12 | 315 | $6,967.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 10:35am ET | $21.36 | 315 | $6,729.97 | $6,744.07 |
$-237.83 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:45am ET | $22.77 | 296 | $6,739.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 2:25pm ET | $23.91 | 296 | $7,077.36 | $7,081.51 |
+$337.44 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 3:45pm ET | $24.40 | 290 | $7,074.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.81 | 290 | $7,484.90 | $7,491.86 |
+$410.35 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.70 | 303 | $7,485.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $26.05 | 303 | $7,893.15 | $7,899.39 |
+$407.53 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $26.18 | 301 | $7,880.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.12 | 301 | $7,561.12 | $7,580.33 |
$-319.06 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:00pm ET | $25.26 | 300 | $7,578.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $24.45 | 300 | $7,335.00 | $7,337.31 |
$-243.03 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:15am ET | $24.51 | 299 | $7,329.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $23.45 | 299 | $7,011.55 | $7,018.88 |
$-318.43 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $22.89 | 306 | $7,002.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $22.10 | 306 | $6,762.60 | $6,778.67 |
$-240.21 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:25am ET | $21.25 | 318 | $6,757.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $20.58 | 318 | $6,546.03 | $6,567.20 |
$-211.47 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:30pm ET | $21.18 | 309 | $6,546.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $22.32 | 309 | $6,896.88 | $6,917.92 |
+$350.72 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $22.74 | 304 | $6,912.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 10:00am ET | $23.91 | 304 | $7,267.12 | $7,272.08 |
+$354.16 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $22.70 | 320 | $7,264.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:50am ET | $22.01 | 320 | $7,043.20 | $7,051.28 |
$-220.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 2:20pm ET | $22.58 | 312 | $7,046.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $23.73 | 312 | $7,402.20 | $7,406.96 |
+$355.68 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 12:25pm ET | $23.50 | 315 | $7,402.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 2:35pm ET | $22.68 | 315 | $7,145.77 | $7,150.23 |
$-256.73 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $23.18 | 308 | $7,139.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:45am ET | $22.40 | 308 | $6,898.43 | $6,909.22 |
$-241.01 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $22.17 | 311 | $6,894.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 2:35pm ET | $23.39 | 311 | $7,274.32 | $7,288.67 |
+$379.45 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 2:35pm ET | $23.54 | 309 | $7,273.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:25pm ET | $22.83 | 309 | $7,052.93 | $7,067.73 |
$-220.94 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 1:55pm ET | $22.91 | 308 | $7,054.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.22 | 308 | $7,459.76 | $7,472.75 |
+$405.02 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,472.75
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,527.25
Total Return:
-25.27%