Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:25:06

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
82.9 overbought
20d Trend
+25.5%
5d Trend
+7.3%
EMA20 Dist
+10.2%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
100%
Bounce Ratio
4.2×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.9/35
Total Return
12.3/25
Win Rate
0.8/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 25.4/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 23.1

30-Day Momentum

0
-1.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-23 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,011
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
87 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,851.69
Current Value
$12,926.07
Period P&L
$74.39
Max Drawdown
-20.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
6 / 8
Best Trade
+6.60%
Worst Trade
-3.65%
Avg Trade Return
+0.19%
Avg Hold Time
7.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$385,599.44
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$74.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$74.39
Gross Return
+0.58%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.58%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 GILD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 87 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,851.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 11:40am ET $121.42 104 $12,627.68
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:15am ET $117.49 104 $12,218.44 $12,325.52 $-409.24
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:15am ET $120.43 102 $12,283.86
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:20am ET $126.49 102 $12,901.47 $12,943.13 +$617.61
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
15d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 12:00pm ET $131.52 98 $12,888.47
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET $140.19 98 $13,738.62 $13,793.28 +$850.15
(+6.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 2:00pm ET $139.80 98 $13,700.40
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $148.20 98 $14,523.60 $14,616.48 +$823.20
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET $151.47 96 $14,541.12
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $151.68 96 $14,560.80 $14,636.16 +$19.68
(+0.1%)
📅 Sim Ended
6.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $147.20 99 $14,572.80
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:15am ET $155.42 99 $15,386.58 $15,449.94 +$813.78
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $154.27 100 $15,427.00
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $148.97 100 $14,897.00 $14,919.94 $-530.00
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET $148.45 100 $14,845.00
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 11:15am ET $143.84 100 $14,384.00 $14,458.94 $-461.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 3:40pm ET $150.02 96 $14,402.40
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET $145.26 96 $13,945.44 $14,001.98 $-456.96
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 1:35pm ET $144.47 96 $13,869.12
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 9:50am ET $140.09 96 $13,448.64 $13,581.50 $-420.48
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 1:35pm ET $140.33 96 $13,471.68
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 12:50pm ET $136.07 96 $13,063.20 $13,173.02 $-408.48
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 3:20pm ET $136.03 96 $13,058.88
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 1:40pm ET $142.91 96 $13,719.84 $13,833.98 +$660.96
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 1:45pm ET $139.34 99 $13,794.66
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET $134.26 99 $13,291.25 $13,330.57 $-503.41
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 11:35am ET $132.21 100 $13,221.00
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:35am ET $128.16 100 $12,816.50 $12,926.07 $-404.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,926.07
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,926.07
Total Return: +29.26%
Back to Marcus Reversal