Compendium › Marcus Trend Dip › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Trend Dip's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 24 trades in period

+57.36%
Last Year Return
$22,377.07
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$14,220.39
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:47:38

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

50
Lifetime
Confidence: 69%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
17.4/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
6.5/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality 72.0/100
× Confidence 0.69 = 49.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (69%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
39,096
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
260 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$14,220.39
Current Value
$22,377.07
Period P&L
$8,156.71
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.42

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
15 / 9
Best Trade
+6.71%
Worst Trade
-6.31%
Avg Trade Return
+2.03%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$858,380.09
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$8,156.71
Net P&L (after fees)
$8,156.71
Gross Return
+57.36%
Net Return (after fees)
+57.36%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 260 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Trend Dip had $14,220.39 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 12, 2025 11:30am ET $92.38 153 $14,134.14 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2025 9:45am ET $97.10 153 $14,856.30 $14,942.54 +$722.16
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY May 19, 2025 10:40am ET $98.14 152 $14,916.52 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2025 11:55am ET $94.85 152 $14,417.20 $14,443.22 $-499.32
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY May 27, 2025 11:10am ET $96.17 150 $14,425.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2025 9:30am ET $102.62 150 $15,393.00 $15,410.70 +$967.49
(+6.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2025 10:40am ET $107.53 143 $15,376.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2025 9:30am ET $114.07 143 $16,311.84 $16,345.75 +$935.05
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2025 10:40am ET $119.39 136 $16,237.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2025 9:30am ET $127.26 136 $17,307.39 $17,416.10 +$1,070.35
(+6.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2025 12:55pm ET $123.80 140 $17,332.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2025 11:05am ET $119.64 140 $16,749.60 $16,833.70 $-582.40
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2025 11:10am ET $111.70 150 $16,755.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 8, 2025 11:05am ET $117.40 150 $17,609.25 $17,687.95 +$854.25
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2025 10:45am ET $151.85 116 $17,614.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2025 9:45am ET $159.67 116 $18,521.14 $18,594.49 +$906.54
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2025 11:20am ET $167.82 110 $18,460.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2025 9:30am ET $162.72 110 $17,899.21 $18,033.50 $-560.99
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 29, 2025 11:55am ET $163.96 109 $17,871.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 1, 2025 10:15am ET $172.46 109 $18,798.14 $18,960.00 +$926.50
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Oct 2, 2025 10:40am ET $182.04 104 $18,932.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 3, 2025 11:20am ET $191.42 104 $19,907.20 $19,935.04 +$975.04
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Oct 20, 2025 10:40am ET $205.74 96 $19,750.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2025 9:30am ET $193.94 96 $18,618.24 $18,802.72 $-1,132.32
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Nov 3, 2025 12:00pm ET $234.48 80 $18,758.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET $221.35 80 $17,708.00 $17,752.22 $-1,050.50
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 10:45am ET $246.86 71 $17,527.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET $231.28 71 $16,420.53 $16,645.69 $-1,106.54
(-6.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 11:30am ET $230.84 72 $16,620.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET $242.85 72 $17,485.26 $17,510.47 +$864.78
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 12:00pm ET $252.06 69 $17,392.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 10:25am ET $244.35 69 $16,860.15 $16,978.38 $-532.09
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 10:40am ET $243.89 69 $16,828.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET $236.40 69 $16,311.60 $16,461.57 $-516.81
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 10:50am ET $251.44 65 $16,343.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2025 9:40am ET $266.25 65 $17,306.25 $17,424.55 +$962.98
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 11:15am ET $285.88 60 $17,152.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET $302.59 60 $18,155.40 $18,427.45 +$1,002.90
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 12:25pm ET $338.89 54 $18,300.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET $359.80 54 $19,429.23 $19,556.61 +$1,129.17
(+6.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 11:00am ET $368.71 53 $19,541.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:30am ET $389.01 53 $20,617.53 $20,632.51 +$1,075.90
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET $407.07 50 $20,353.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 9:35am ET $429.22 50 $21,461.00 $21,740.01 +$1,107.50
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 2:00pm ET $376.95 57 $21,486.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET $400.54 57 $22,830.78 $23,084.35 +$1,344.35
(+6.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 12:05pm ET $410.74 56 $23,001.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 11:10am ET $398.11 56 $22,294.16 $22,377.07 $-707.28
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $22,377.07
Net Profit/Loss: +$12,377.07
Total Return: +123.77%
Back to Marcus Trend Dip