Compendium › Marcus Trend Dip › VTI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
VTI
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Trend Dip's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-1.42%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,258.13
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$12,434.78
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:50:11

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
36.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.9%
5d Trend
-2.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 64%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.8/35
Total Return
11.4/25
Win Rate
10.0/15
Profit Factor
5.1/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 49.0/100
× Confidence 0.64 = 31.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (64%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,324
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,434.78
Current Value
$12,258.13
Period P&L
$-176.66
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+6.51%
Worst Trade
-3.54%
Avg Trade Return
-0.26%
Avg Hold Time
13d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$94,631.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-176.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$-176.66
Gross Return
-1.42%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.42%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 VTI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Trend Dip had $12,434.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 10:45am ET $333.19 37 $12,328.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 10:00am ET $322.43 37 $11,929.91 $12,036.67 $-398.12
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $339.03 35 $11,866.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $336.37 35 $11,772.95 $11,943.57 $-93.10
(-0.8%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 10:55am ET $340.39 35 $11,913.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $328.35 35 $11,492.30 $11,522.39 $-421.18
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:40am ET $313.80 36 $11,296.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $334.23 36 $12,032.36 $12,258.13 +$735.74
(+6.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,258.13
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,258.13
Total Return: +22.58%
Back to Marcus Trend Dip