Compendium › Marcus Yield Curve › COST
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
COST
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Yield Curve's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 16 trades executed

+19.90%
2 Years Return
$14,957.18
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$12,474.50
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:48:04

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
68.2 neutral
20d Trend
+5.1%
5d Trend
+5.5%
EMA20 Dist
+3.1%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
93%
Bounce Ratio
2.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
84.0/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
83.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
86.3/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
47,760
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
527 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$12,474.50
Current Value
$14,957.18
Total P&L
$2,482.69
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.72

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
9
Winners / Losers
6 / 3
Best Trade
+5.28%
Worst Trade
-3.13%
Avg Trade Return
+2.60%
Avg Hold Time
16.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$242,812.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,482.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,482.69
Gross Return
+19.90%
Net Return (after fees)
+19.90%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COST Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 527 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Yield Curve had $12,474.50 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2024 11:45am ET $718.60 16 $11,497.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2024 3:50pm ET $755.87 16 $12,093.84 $12,616.34 +$596.24
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY May 8, 2024 11:00am ET $768.58 16 $12,297.28 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2024 11:35am ET $807.28 16 $12,916.48 $13,235.54 +$619.20
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY May 24, 2024 12:45pm ET $813.09 16 $13,009.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2024 10:00am ET $854.93 16 $13,678.81 $13,904.98 +$669.45
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 14, 2024 2:05pm ET $851.00 16 $13,616.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2024 9:50am ET $894.15 16 $14,306.46 $14,595.44 +$690.46
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2024 11:05am ET $883.24 16 $14,131.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 11, 2024 10:15am ET $856.40 16 $13,702.40 $14,166.00 $-429.44
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 12, 2024 10:15am ET $840.43 16 $13,446.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 26, 2024 9:40am ET $814.16 16 $13,026.56 $13,745.68 $-420.32
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2024 11:15am ET $815.46 16 $13,047.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 9, 2024 1:25pm ET $856.84 16 $13,709.44 $14,407.76 +$662.08
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2024 1:40pm ET $863.50 16 $13,816.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2024 10:30am ET $909.08 16 $14,545.28 $15,137.04 +$729.28
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2024 10:40am ET $886.79 17 $15,075.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 3, 2024 10:40am ET $876.21 17 $14,895.57 $14,957.18 $-179.86
(-1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,957.18
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,957.18
Total Return: +49.57%
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