SMCI Momo Momentum's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 65 trades executed
-47.15%
2 Years Return
$9,524.22
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$18,022.03
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
6
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality
7.3/100
× Confidence 0.89
= 6.5
30-Day Momentum
13
+4.0%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.0
Conf: 0.70×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
82,988
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$18,022.03
Current Value
$9,524.22
Total P&L
$-8,497.83
Max Drawdown
-72.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
49
Winners / Losers
22 /
27
Best Trade
+15.76%
Worst Trade
-30.69%
Avg Trade Return
-0.67%
Avg Hold Time
5.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$956,263.94
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-8,497.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$-8,497.83
Gross Return
-47.15%
Net Return (after fees)
-47.15%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Momo Momentum had $18,022.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $91.12 | 197 | $17,951.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2024 2:50pm ET | $83.75 | 197 | $16,499.14 | $16,570.16 |
$-1,451.89 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 30, 2024 9:30am ET | $81.70 | 202 | $16,503.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2024 1:00pm ET | $74.91 | 202 | $15,132.63 | $15,199.38 |
$-1,370.77 (-8.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 21, 2024 9:35am ET | $89.29 | 170 | $15,179.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2024 11:10am ET | $81.68 | 170 | $13,885.94 | $13,905.43 |
$-1,293.96 (-8.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 28, 2024 9:30am ET | $87.86 | 158 | $13,882.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2024 9:35am ET | $80.24 | 158 | $12,678.32 | $12,701.71 |
$-1,203.72 (-8.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2024 9:55am ET | $82.91 | 153 | $12,684.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2024 11:20am ET | $91.25 | 153 | $13,961.10 | $13,978.12 |
+$1,276.42 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2024 11:20am ET | $91.13 | 153 | $13,942.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $83.02 | 153 | $12,701.68 | $12,736.91 |
$-1,241.21 (-8.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 4, 2024 9:40am ET | $42.38 | 300 | $12,714.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2024 10:50am ET | $47.08 | 300 | $14,124.00 | $14,146.91 |
+$1,410.00 (+11.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2024 10:50am ET | $44.87 | 315 | $14,134.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2024 11:10am ET | $49.42 | 315 | $15,567.30 | $15,580.16 |
+$1,433.25 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2024 11:10am ET | $47.87 | 325 | $15,557.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2024 9:30am ET | $33.18 | 325 | $10,783.50 | $10,805.75 |
$-4,774.41 (-30.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 29, 2024 9:30am ET | $32.76 | 329 | $10,778.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2024 9:30am ET | $36.86 | 329 | $12,126.91 | $12,154.62 |
+$1,348.87 (+12.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2024 9:35am ET | $43.61 | 278 | $12,123.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2024 11:15am ET | $40.01 | 278 | $11,122.78 | $11,153.82 |
$-1,000.80 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2024 11:35am ET | $42.06 | 265 | $11,145.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 9:35am ET | $46.48 | 265 | $12,316.67 | $12,324.59 |
+$1,170.77 (+10.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2024 9:35am ET | $40.92 | 301 | $12,316.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2024 9:30am ET | $36.11 | 301 | $10,869.11 | $10,876.78 |
$-1,447.81 (-11.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2024 9:50am ET | $39.50 | 275 | $10,861.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 13, 2024 9:40am ET | $36.27 | 275 | $9,974.25 | $9,989.90 |
$-886.87 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2024 9:50am ET | $33.84 | 295 | $9,982.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 10:35am ET | $30.92 | 295 | $9,121.43 | $9,128.53 |
$-861.37 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 20, 2024 10:40am ET | $32.93 | 277 | $9,121.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2024 9:50am ET | $30.22 | 277 | $8,369.56 | $8,376.48 |
$-752.06 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2025 9:35am ET | $33.02 | 253 | $8,352.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 10:55am ET | $30.30 | 253 | $7,665.90 | $7,689.58 |
$-686.90 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $37.88 | 202 | $7,651.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2025 3:00pm ET | $41.69 | 202 | $8,422.31 | $8,460.13 |
+$770.55 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.5h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2025 3:00pm ET | $39.76 | 212 | $8,428.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.37 | 212 | $9,406.31 | $9,438.38 |
+$978.25 (+11.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2025 9:40am ET | $53.51 | 176 | $9,418.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $59.38 | 176 | $10,450.00 | $10,470.27 |
+$1,031.89 (+11.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2025 9:45am ET | $57.93 | 180 | $10,427.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2025 9:55am ET | $52.92 | 180 | $9,524.70 | $9,567.57 |
$-902.70 (-8.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $47.66 | 200 | $9,532.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $53.89 | 200 | $10,778.00 | $10,813.57 |
+$1,246.00 (+13.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2025 9:35am ET | $47.11 | 229 | $10,788.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2025 2:40pm ET | $43.28 | 229 | $9,911.10 | $9,936.48 |
$-877.09 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2025 2:40pm ET | $41.15 | 241 | $9,915.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2025 1:05pm ET | $37.54 | 241 | $9,046.18 | $9,066.71 |
$-869.77 (-8.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 1:15pm ET | $39.28 | 230 | $9,034.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2025 9:35am ET | $36.07 | 230 | $8,294.95 | $8,327.03 |
$-739.68 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 7, 2025 10:05am ET | $37.69 | 220 | $8,292.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $43.63 | 220 | $9,598.60 | $9,633.56 |
+$1,306.54 (+15.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2025 9:40am ET | $42.18 | 228 | $9,617.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2025 3:20pm ET | $38.44 | 228 | $8,764.32 | $8,780.87 |
$-852.70 (-8.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2025 9:35am ET | $36.85 | 238 | $8,770.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $29.50 | 238 | $7,021.00 | $7,031.57 |
$-1,749.30 (-19.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 9:35am ET | $33.11 | 212 | $7,019.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2025 10:15am ET | $36.75 | 212 | $7,791.00 | $7,803.25 |
+$771.68 (+11.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2025 10:35am ET | $44.51 | 175 | $7,789.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $40.06 | 175 | $7,010.50 | $7,024.53 |
$-778.71 (-10.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $40.99 | 171 | $7,008.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $42.15 | 171 | $7,207.65 | $7,223.75 |
+$199.22 (+2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $45.60 | 158 | $7,204.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 12:25pm ET | $41.81 | 158 | $6,605.82 | $6,625.56 |
$-598.19 (-8.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $46.90 | 141 | $6,613.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $51.79 | 141 | $7,302.39 | $7,314.89 |
+$689.33 (+10.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2025 9:35am ET | $52.93 | 138 | $7,303.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2025 10:40am ET | $58.63 | 138 | $8,090.25 | $8,101.22 |
+$786.32 (+10.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2025 10:40am ET | $60.89 | 133 | $8,097.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 9:40am ET | $55.82 | 133 | $7,424.06 | $7,427.31 |
$-673.91 (-8.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2025 9:40am ET | $58.43 | 127 | $7,420.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $47.75 | 127 | $6,063.62 | $6,070.31 |
$-1,357.00 (-18.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.99 | 134 | $6,027.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 11:20am ET | $49.51 | 134 | $6,634.51 | $6,676.84 |
+$606.52 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 11:25am ET | $51.94 | 128 | $6,648.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 9:40am ET | $57.21 | 128 | $7,322.56 | $7,351.08 |
+$674.24 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:15am ET | $56.28 | 130 | $7,316.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 10:35am ET | $51.75 | 130 | $6,727.50 | $6,762.18 |
$-588.90 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 10:40am ET | $48.69 | 138 | $6,719.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 12:10pm ET | $53.69 | 138 | $7,409.22 | $7,452.18 |
+$690.00 (+10.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.52 | 244 | $7,446.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $33.99 | 244 | $8,293.56 | $8,298.86 |
+$846.68 (+11.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.68 | 261 | $8,268.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $33.47 | 261 | $8,736.97 | $8,767.35 |
+$468.49 (+5.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
4.3d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.59 | 277 | $8,750.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET | $29.96 | 277 | $8,298.89 | $8,315.81 |
$-451.54 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $21.57 | 385 | $8,304.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 10:10am ET | $23.75 | 385 | $9,143.75 | $9,155.03 |
+$839.22 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 11:15am ET | $23.09 | 396 | $9,143.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.91 | 396 | $8,676.36 | $8,687.75 |
$-467.28 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.03 | 361 | $8,674.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.00 | 361 | $9,747.00 | $9,759.92 |
+$1,072.17 (+12.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 11:25am ET | $28.10 | 347 | $9,750.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.51 | 347 | $9,198.97 | $9,208.19 |
$-551.73 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $28.61 | 321 | $9,183.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.73 | 321 | $8,578.73 | $8,603.10 |
$-605.09 (-6.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $28.32 | 303 | $8,580.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.36 | 303 | $9,502.08 | $9,524.22 |
+$921.12 (+10.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,524.22
Net Profit/Loss:
$-475.78
Total Return:
-4.76%