LLY Monday Masher's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-07 to present • 31 trades in period
+24.56%
Last Year Return
$16,309.54
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$13,093.49
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
60
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.0/25
Win Rate
8.2/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality
67.4/100
× Confidence 0.89
= 60.3
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,588
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$13,093.49
Current Value
$16,309.54
Period P&L
$3,216.05
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
19 /
12
Best Trade
+14.28%
Worst Trade
-15.12%
Avg Trade Return
+0.74%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$914,281.66
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,216.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,216.05
Gross Return
+24.56%
Net Return (after fees)
+24.56%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $13,093.49 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 11:35am ET | $816.01 | 17 | $13,584.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2025 3:55pm ET | $752.09 | 17 | $12,520.16 | $12,520.16 |
$-1,064.09 (-7.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2025 9:35am ET | $736.77 | 17 | $12,520.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2025 3:55pm ET | $734.14 | 17 | $12,475.47 | $12,475.47 |
$-44.69 (-0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 10:35am ET | $748.82 | 17 | $12,475.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2025 3:55pm ET | $715.15 | 17 | $11,914.52 | $11,914.52 |
$-560.95 (-4.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2025 9:45am ET | $734.91 | 16 | $11,914.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2025 3:55pm ET | $765.97 | 16 | $12,418.07 | $12,418.07 |
+$503.55 (+4.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 10:30am ET | $775.84 | 16 | $12,418.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2025 3:55pm ET | $794.80 | 16 | $12,721.54 | $12,721.54 |
+$303.47 (+2.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $766.56 | 17 | $12,721.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 3:55pm ET | $790.64 | 17 | $13,121.16 | $13,121.16 |
+$399.62 (+3.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2025 10:35am ET | $763.00 | 17 | $13,121.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2025 3:55pm ET | $804.30 | 17 | $13,831.39 | $13,831.39 |
+$710.23 (+5.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2025 9:50am ET | $755.04 | 18 | $13,831.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2025 3:55pm ET | $640.84 | 18 | $11,739.39 | $11,739.39 |
$-2,092.00 (-15.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2025 12:10pm ET | $642.73 | 18 | $11,739.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2025 3:55pm ET | $684.46 | 18 | $12,501.58 | $12,501.58 |
+$762.19 (+6.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2025 11:50am ET | $699.74 | 18 | $12,501.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2025 3:55pm ET | $710.01 | 18 | $12,685.06 | $12,685.06 |
+$183.48 (+1.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2025 10:40am ET | $702.62 | 18 | $12,685.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2025 3:55pm ET | $732.30 | 18 | $13,220.90 | $13,220.90 |
+$535.84 (+4.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2025 9:35am ET | $748.03 | 18 | $13,220.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2025 3:55pm ET | $762.74 | 18 | $13,480.96 | $13,480.96 |
+$260.06 (+2.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $717.64 | 19 | $13,480.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 3:55pm ET | $820.12 | 19 | $15,406.17 | $15,406.17 |
+$1,925.21 (+14.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 10:10am ET | $826.67 | 19 | $15,406.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 3:55pm ET | $819.34 | 19 | $15,269.57 | $15,269.57 |
$-136.60 (-0.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $819.42 | 19 | $15,269.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 3:55pm ET | $844.22 | 19 | $15,731.74 | $15,731.74 |
+$462.17 (+3.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $967.19 | 16 | $15,731.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 3:55pm ET | $1,023.15 | 16 | $16,642.04 | $16,642.04 |
+$910.30 (+5.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $1,010.44 | 16 | $16,642.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 3:55pm ET | $1,042.68 | 16 | $17,173.04 | $17,173.04 |
+$531.00 (+3.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $1,053.92 | 16 | $17,173.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 1:00pm ET | $1,075.47 | 16 | $17,524.19 | $17,524.19 |
+$351.15 (+2.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 10:35am ET | $1,064.14 | 16 | $17,524.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 3:55pm ET | $1,013.85 | 16 | $16,696.02 | $16,696.02 |
$-828.17 (-4.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 10:10am ET | $997.07 | 17 | $16,696.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 3:55pm ET | $1,009.17 | 17 | $16,898.64 | $16,898.64 |
+$202.62 (+1.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 10:35am ET | $1,067.42 | 16 | $16,898.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 3:55pm ET | $1,077.51 | 16 | $17,058.46 | $17,058.46 |
+$159.82 (+0.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $1,058.83 | 16 | $17,058.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,084.68 | 16 | $17,474.88 | $17,474.88 |
+$416.42 (+2.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,056.05 | 17 | $17,474.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,023.52 | 17 | $16,936.59 | $16,936.59 |
$-538.29 (-3.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:05pm ET | $1,040.94 | 16 | $16,936.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,019.98 | 16 | $16,595.56 | $16,595.56 |
$-341.03 (-2.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,064.47 | 16 | $16,595.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,038.95 | 16 | $16,197.69 | $16,197.69 |
$-397.87 (-2.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $1,037.38 | 16 | $16,197.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $981.36 | 16 | $15,322.99 | $15,322.99 |
$-874.70 (-5.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $980.38 | 16 | $15,322.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $918.08 | 16 | $14,349.19 | $14,349.19 |
$-973.80 (-6.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:45pm ET | $915.65 | 16 | $14,349.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $899.01 | 16 | $14,088.42 | $14,088.42 |
$-260.77 (-1.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $886.85 | 16 | $14,088.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $936.04 | 16 | $14,869.85 | $14,869.85 |
+$781.43 (+5.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $926.68 | 16 | $14,869.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $955.28 | 16 | $15,328.70 | $15,328.70 |
+$458.85 (+3.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:35am ET | $879.24 | 17 | $15,328.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $935.50 | 17 | $16,309.54 | $16,309.54 |
+$980.84 (+6.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,309.54
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,309.54
Total Return:
+63.10%