AXP Monday Masher's Analysis
to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 50 trades executed
+32.68%
2 Years Return
$13,612.56
Current Value
66%
Win Rate
$10,260.04
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
55
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
25.3/35
Total Return
13.0/25
Win Rate
9.8/15
Profit Factor
7.5/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality
62.5/100
× Confidence 0.87
= 54.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
44,837
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
520 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,260.04
Current Value
$13,612.56
Total P&L
$3,352.52
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.33
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
44
Winners / Losers
29 /
15
Best Trade
+5.26%
Worst Trade
-6.07%
Avg Trade Return
+0.67%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,040,861.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,352.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,352.52
Gross Return
+32.68%
Net Return (after fees)
+32.68%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 520 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $10,260.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2024 10:45am ET | $240.59 | 43 | $10,260.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2024 3:55pm ET | $241.50 | 43 | $10,298.74 | $10,298.74 |
+$38.70 (+0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2024 10:30am ET | $237.77 | 43 | $10,298.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2024 3:55pm ET | $237.20 | 43 | $10,274.05 | $10,274.05 |
$-24.69 (-0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2024 10:30am ET | $231.70 | 44 | $10,274.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2024 3:55pm ET | $236.08 | 44 | $10,468.27 | $10,468.27 |
+$194.22 (+1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2024 10:35am ET | $236.49 | 44 | $10,468.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2024 3:55pm ET | $237.75 | 44 | $10,524.04 | $10,524.04 |
+$55.77 (+0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2024 9:55am ET | $240.31 | 44 | $10,524.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2024 3:55pm ET | $246.77 | 44 | $10,806.95 | $10,806.95 |
+$282.91 (+2.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $223.22 | 48 | $10,806.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2024 3:55pm ET | $231.07 | 48 | $11,187.25 | $11,187.25 |
+$380.30 (+3.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2024 9:30am ET | $268.42 | 42 | $11,187.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2024 3:55pm ET | $268.57 | 42 | $11,193.50 | $11,193.50 |
+$6.25 (+0.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2024 9:35am ET | $274.71 | 41 | $11,193.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2024 3:55pm ET | $272.39 | 41 | $11,099.17 | $11,099.17 |
$-94.33 (-0.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2024 10:20am ET | $283.71 | 39 | $11,099.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2024 3:55pm ET | $285.48 | 39 | $11,168.42 | $11,168.42 |
+$69.25 (+0.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2024 10:00am ET | $303.30 | 37 | $11,168.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2024 3:55pm ET | $302.16 | 37 | $11,126.63 | $11,126.63 |
$-41.79 (-0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 10:30am ET | $300.73 | 37 | $11,126.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2024 3:55pm ET | $302.18 | 37 | $11,180.28 | $11,180.28 |
+$53.65 (+0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2024 9:30am ET | $297.74 | 38 | $11,180.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2024 1:00pm ET | $303.46 | 38 | $11,395.07 | $11,395.07 |
+$214.79 (+1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2024 9:30am ET | $297.17 | 38 | $11,395.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2024 3:55pm ET | $297.04 | 38 | $11,390.09 | $11,390.09 |
$-4.98 (-0.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $313.44 | 36 | $11,390.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2025 3:55pm ET | $316.98 | 36 | $11,518.73 | $11,518.73 |
+$128.64 (+1.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 9:35am ET | $312.05 | 37 | $11,518.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2025 3:55pm ET | $315.80 | 37 | $11,657.15 | $11,657.15 |
+$138.42 (+1.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2025 10:30am ET | $311.33 | 37 | $11,657.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2025 3:55pm ET | $309.66 | 37 | $11,594.62 | $11,594.62 |
$-62.53 (-0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2025 10:30am ET | $295.13 | 39 | $11,594.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 3:55pm ET | $293.31 | 39 | $11,523.12 | $11,523.12 |
$-71.50 (-0.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 11:40am ET | $299.46 | 38 | $11,523.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 3:55pm ET | $283.47 | 38 | $10,907.83 | $10,907.83 |
$-615.29 (-5.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $265.42 | 41 | $10,907.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2025 3:55pm ET | $255.33 | 41 | $10,493.17 | $10,493.17 |
$-414.66 (-3.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2025 10:05am ET | $262.54 | 40 | $10,493.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2025 3:55pm ET | $262.69 | 40 | $10,499.17 | $10,499.17 |
+$6.00 (+0.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:40am ET | $261.18 | 40 | $10,499.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2025 3:55pm ET | $270.48 | 40 | $10,873.02 | $10,873.02 |
+$373.85 (+3.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $223.71 | 49 | $10,873.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 3:55pm ET | $231.53 | 49 | $11,253.10 | $11,253.10 |
+$380.08 (+3.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2025 11:35am ET | $253.76 | 44 | $11,253.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2025 3:55pm ET | $257.99 | 44 | $11,440.68 | $11,440.68 |
+$187.58 (+1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $247.13 | 46 | $11,440.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2025 3:55pm ET | $252.41 | 46 | $11,685.11 | $11,685.11 |
+$244.43 (+2.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2025 11:45am ET | $263.73 | 44 | $11,685.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2025 3:55pm ET | $266.91 | 44 | $11,826.01 | $11,826.01 |
+$140.90 (+1.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $296.82 | 40 | $11,826.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2025 3:55pm ET | $296.09 | 40 | $11,796.83 | $11,796.83 |
$-29.18 (-0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2025 9:40am ET | $291.72 | 40 | $11,796.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2025 3:55pm ET | $297.52 | 40 | $12,031.38 | $12,031.38 |
+$234.55 (+2.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 11:20am ET | $296.01 | 41 | $12,031.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2025 3:55pm ET | $308.42 | 41 | $12,535.79 | $12,535.79 |
+$504.41 (+4.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2025 9:35am ET | $339.20 | 37 | $12,535.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2025 3:55pm ET | $341.61 | 37 | $12,624.86 | $12,624.86 |
+$89.07 (+0.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 10:05am ET | $326.61 | 39 | $12,624.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 3:55pm ET | $327.82 | 39 | $12,671.63 | $12,671.63 |
+$46.77 (+0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 9:50am ET | $344.36 | 37 | $12,671.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 3:55pm ET | $355.17 | 37 | $13,069.41 | $13,069.41 |
+$397.78 (+3.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:10am ET | $363.90 | 36 | $13,069.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 3:55pm ET | $370.24 | 36 | $13,297.11 | $13,297.11 |
+$227.70 (+1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 11:10am ET | $353.15 | 38 | $13,297.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 3:55pm ET | $340.76 | 38 | $12,830.77 | $12,830.77 |
$-466.34 (-3.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 9:35am ET | $350.68 | 37 | $12,830.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 3:55pm ET | $362.74 | 37 | $13,272.02 | $13,272.02 |
+$441.25 (+3.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 9:40am ET | $366.46 | 36 | $13,272.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 3:55pm ET | $363.90 | 36 | $13,179.30 | $13,179.30 |
$-92.72 (-0.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $376.91 | 35 | $13,179.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 3:55pm ET | $373.40 | 35 | $13,056.57 | $13,056.57 |
$-122.73 (-0.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:25am ET | $379.66 | 34 | $13,056.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $383.66 | 34 | $13,194.13 | $13,194.13 |
+$137.56 (+1.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $359.55 | 37 | $13,194.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $358.04 | 37 | $13,138.72 | $13,138.72 |
$-55.41 (-0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $341.11 | 39 | $13,138.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $320.41 | 39 | $12,341.41 | $12,341.41 |
$-797.31 (-6.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $303.20 | 41 | $12,341.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $307.43 | 41 | $12,513.79 | $12,513.79 |
+$172.38 (+1.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $294.11 | 43 | $12,513.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $303.45 | 43 | $12,910.97 | $12,910.97 |
+$397.18 (+3.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 10:45am ET | $299.22 | 43 | $12,910.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $300.85 | 43 | $12,981.30 | $12,981.30 |
+$70.33 (+0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $310.97 | 42 | $12,981.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $327.33 | 42 | $13,664.14 | $13,664.14 |
+$682.84 (+5.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $317.89 | 43 | $13,664.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $316.68 | 43 | $13,612.56 | $13,612.56 |
$-51.58 (-0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,612.56
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,612.56
Total Return:
+36.13%