MSFT Monday Masher's Analysis
to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 35 trades executed
+57.16%
2 Years Return
$16,215.21
Current Value
69%
Win Rate
$10,317.81
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
66
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.0/25
Win Rate
10.4/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
82.0/100
× Confidence 0.81
= 66.1
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
78,154
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,317.81
Current Value
$16,215.21
Total P&L
$5,897.40
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.50
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
29
Winners / Losers
20 /
9
Best Trade
+11.60%
Worst Trade
-4.39%
Avg Trade Return
+1.61%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$749,202.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$5,897.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$5,897.40
Gross Return
+57.16%
Net Return (after fees)
+57.16%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $10,317.81 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2024 9:30am ET | $446.95 | 23 | $10,317.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2024 1:00pm ET | $460.77 | 23 | $10,636.84 | $10,636.84 |
+$319.03 (+3.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2024 12:15pm ET | $451.82 | 24 | $10,636.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2024 3:55pm ET | $443.55 | 24 | $10,442.15 | $10,442.15 |
$-194.69 (-1.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2024 11:40am ET | $439.41 | 24 | $10,442.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2024 3:55pm ET | $428.94 | 24 | $10,193.34 | $10,193.34 |
$-248.81 (-2.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $389.82 | 26 | $10,193.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2024 3:55pm ET | $398.34 | 26 | $10,416.26 | $10,416.26 |
+$222.92 (+2.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2024 10:35am ET | $403.04 | 26 | $10,416.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2024 3:55pm ET | $422.94 | 26 | $10,930.56 | $10,930.56 |
+$514.30 (+4.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2024 9:30am ET | $431.39 | 25 | $10,930.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2024 3:55pm ET | $432.04 | 25 | $10,947.03 | $10,947.03 |
+$16.47 (+0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2024 9:30am ET | $406.60 | 27 | $10,947.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2024 3:55pm ET | $420.21 | 27 | $11,313.43 | $11,313.43 |
+$366.40 (+3.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2024 11:10am ET | $417.77 | 27 | $11,313.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 3:55pm ET | $425.34 | 27 | $11,518.43 | $11,518.43 |
+$205.00 (+1.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2024 10:35am ET | $416.46 | 28 | $11,518.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 27, 2024 3:55pm ET | $422.91 | 28 | $11,696.78 | $11,696.78 |
+$178.35 (+1.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2024 9:30am ET | $423.75 | 28 | $11,696.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2025 3:55pm ET | $418.69 | 28 | $11,557.11 | $11,557.11 |
$-139.67 (-1.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $416.63 | 28 | $11,557.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2025 3:55pm ET | $426.26 | 28 | $11,824.24 | $11,824.24 |
+$267.13 (+2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $424.66 | 28 | $11,824.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2025 3:55pm ET | $441.77 | 28 | $12,300.65 | $12,300.65 |
+$476.41 (+4.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 9:50am ET | $412.08 | 30 | $12,300.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2025 3:55pm ET | $413.28 | 30 | $12,336.47 | $12,336.47 |
+$35.82 (+0.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2025 9:35am ET | $401.95 | 31 | $12,336.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2025 3:55pm ET | $399.64 | 31 | $12,265.60 | $12,265.60 |
$-70.87 (-0.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 3:30pm ET | $389.36 | 32 | $12,265.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2025 3:55pm ET | $401.10 | 32 | $12,635.43 | $12,635.43 |
+$369.83 (+3.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $384.50 | 33 | $12,635.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2025 3:55pm ET | $383.28 | 33 | $12,595.45 | $12,595.45 |
$-39.98 (-0.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $368.69 | 34 | $12,595.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2025 3:55pm ET | $382.11 | 34 | $13,053.91 | $13,053.91 |
+$458.46 (+3.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $349.86 | 37 | $13,053.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2025 3:55pm ET | $390.43 | 37 | $14,567.65 | $14,567.65 |
+$1,513.74 (+11.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2025 11:25am ET | $388.68 | 37 | $14,567.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2025 3:55pm ET | $371.61 | 37 | $13,927.87 | $13,927.87 |
$-639.78 (-4.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $364.19 | 38 | $13,927.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2025 3:55pm ET | $374.05 | 38 | $14,304.95 | $14,304.95 |
+$377.08 (+2.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 9:45am ET | $469.05 | 30 | $14,304.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 3:55pm ET | $485.49 | 30 | $14,806.33 | $14,806.33 |
+$501.38 (+3.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 9:35am ET | $486.21 | 30 | $14,806.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 3:55pm ET | $477.74 | 30 | $14,548.40 | $14,548.40 |
$-257.93 (-1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:25am ET | $473.00 | 31 | $14,548.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 3:55pm ET | $476.06 | 31 | $14,642.52 | $14,642.52 |
+$94.12 (+0.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:25am ET | $388.43 | 38 | $14,642.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $400.58 | 38 | $15,100.53 | $15,100.53 |
+$458.01 (+3.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $405.27 | 37 | $15,100.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $404.91 | 37 | $15,087.08 | $15,087.08 |
$-13.45 (-0.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:45pm ET | $360.89 | 42 | $15,087.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $369.23 | 42 | $15,435.74 | $15,435.74 |
+$348.66 (+2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $417.82 | 37 | $15,435.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $433.27 | 37 | $16,006.44 | $16,006.44 |
+$570.70 (+3.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $417.75 | 38 | $16,006.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $423.94 | 38 | $16,243.61 | $16,243.61 |
+$237.17 (+1.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:35am ET | $414.63 | 39 | $16,243.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $413.90 | 39 | $16,215.21 | $16,215.21 |
$-28.40 (-0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,215.21
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,215.21
Total Return:
+62.15%