TLT Nina Micro's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 36 trades in period
-2.49%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,737.05
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$9,985.44
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
5.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 5.3
30-Day Momentum
3
-0.7%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,792
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,985.44
Current Value
$9,737.05
Period P&L
$-248.36
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
16 /
20
Best Trade
+1.14%
Worst Trade
-1.65%
Avg Trade Return
-0.07%
Avg Hold Time
3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$711,609.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-248.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$-248.36
Gross Return
-2.49%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.49%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Nina Micro had $9,985.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 12:45pm ET | $89.71 | 111 | $9,957.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $89.51 | 111 | $9,935.06 | $9,967.10 |
$-22.75 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 12:05pm ET | $89.93 | 110 | $9,891.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 10:15am ET | $89.24 | 110 | $9,816.40 | $9,891.75 |
$-75.35 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 12:30pm ET | $89.13 | 110 | $9,804.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:30pm ET | $89.37 | 110 | $9,830.70 | $9,918.15 |
+$26.40 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 12:30pm ET | $89.24 | 111 | $9,905.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 12:30pm ET | $89.97 | 111 | $9,986.67 | $9,999.73 |
+$81.58 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 1:25pm ET | $90.39 | 110 | $9,942.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.90 | 110 | $9,778.45 | $9,835.83 |
$-163.90 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.53 | 111 | $9,826.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.46 | 111 | $9,819.26 | $9,828.26 |
$-7.57 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 9:40am ET | $88.04 | 111 | $9,772.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 9:40am ET | $88.75 | 111 | $9,851.25 | $9,907.07 |
+$78.81 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 9:40am ET | $87.41 | 113 | $9,877.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:40am ET | $87.81 | 113 | $9,922.53 | $9,952.27 |
+$45.20 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 1:30pm ET | $87.67 | 113 | $9,906.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 1:30pm ET | $87.53 | 113 | $9,890.33 | $9,936.45 |
$-15.82 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 1:30pm ET | $87.30 | 113 | $9,864.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.12 | 113 | $9,957.56 | $10,029.11 |
+$92.66 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 10:40am ET | $87.87 | 114 | $10,017.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 3:55pm ET | $87.17 | 114 | $9,937.38 | $9,949.31 |
$-79.80 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $87.06 | 114 | $9,924.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $87.45 | 114 | $9,969.30 | $9,993.77 |
+$44.46 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:40am ET | $87.71 | 113 | $9,911.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.44 | 113 | $9,880.72 | $9,963.26 |
$-30.51 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $87.74 | 113 | $9,914.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:40am ET | $88.25 | 113 | $9,972.25 | $10,021.46 |
+$58.20 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 12:55pm ET | $86.88 | 115 | $9,990.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:55pm ET | $87.55 | 115 | $10,067.68 | $10,098.51 |
+$77.05 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 1:45pm ET | $88.26 | 114 | $10,061.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.54 | 114 | $9,979.00 | $10,016.44 |
$-82.07 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.15 | 114 | $9,935.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.04 | 114 | $9,922.56 | $10,003.90 |
$-12.54 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
4d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.46 | 115 | $9,942.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.40 | 115 | $10,051.15 | $10,112.15 |
+$108.25 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.14 | 116 | $10,108.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $87.51 | 116 | $10,151.16 | $10,155.07 |
+$42.92 (+0.4%) |
📅 Sim Ended
6.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:45am ET | $89.94 | 112 | $10,073.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:10am ET | $89.18 | 112 | $9,988.17 | $10,069.40 |
$-85.67 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:50pm ET | $89.89 | 112 | $10,067.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $90.12 | 112 | $10,093.42 | $10,095.41 |
+$26.01 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 3:20pm ET | $90.73 | 111 | $10,071.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $89.98 | 111 | $9,987.78 | $10,012.16 |
$-83.25 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.99 | 112 | $9,966.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.33 | 112 | $9,892.96 | $9,938.24 |
$-73.92 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.28 | 112 | $9,887.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $87.61 | 112 | $9,812.88 | $9,863.76 |
$-74.48 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $86.91 | 113 | $9,820.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.18 | 113 | $9,851.34 | $9,894.27 |
+$30.51 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
4d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 2:10pm ET | $87.47 | 113 | $9,884.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.81 | 113 | $9,809.53 | $9,819.12 |
$-75.15 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $86.35 | 113 | $9,756.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.69 | 113 | $9,683.53 | $9,745.67 |
$-73.45 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:10pm ET | $86.66 | 112 | $9,705.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:20pm ET | $86.01 | 112 | $9,633.12 | $9,672.87 |
$-72.80 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:20pm ET | $85.80 | 112 | $9,609.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET | $86.78 | 112 | $9,718.80 | $9,782.07 |
+$109.20 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.28 | 113 | $9,749.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.51 | 113 | $9,775.63 | $9,808.06 |
+$25.99 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.54 | 113 | $9,779.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.63 | 113 | $9,788.96 | $9,818.00 |
+$9.94 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.43 | 113 | $9,766.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.90 | 113 | $9,819.70 | $9,871.11 |
+$53.11 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:00pm ET | $87.03 | 113 | $9,834.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:00pm ET | $86.91 | 113 | $9,820.59 | $9,857.31 |
$-13.80 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 12:25pm ET | $86.71 | 113 | $9,798.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 12:25pm ET | $86.71 | 113 | $9,798.23 | $9,856.75 |
$-0.56 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 1:10pm ET | $86.28 | 114 | $9,835.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:45pm ET | $85.57 | 114 | $9,754.41 | $9,775.24 |
$-81.51 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:00pm ET | $85.68 | 114 | $9,768.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.35 | 114 | $9,729.90 | $9,737.05 |
$-38.19 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,737.05
Net Profit/Loss:
$-262.95
Total Return:
-2.63%