XLE Nina Micro's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
+13.46%
Year to Date Return
$14,478.53
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$12,761.15
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
43
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
18.2/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
2.1/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality
43.8/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 43.0
30-Day Momentum
25
+1.9%
30d Return
55%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 28.0
Conf: 0.90×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,947
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$12,761.15
Current Value
$14,478.53
Period P&L
$1,717.31
Max Drawdown
-8.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.25
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
22 /
19
Best Trade
+2.23%
Worst Trade
-3.03%
Avg Trade Return
+0.32%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,137,475.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,717.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,717.31
Gross Return
+13.46%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.46%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Nina Micro had $12,761.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 12:00pm ET | $44.65 | 285 | $12,723.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.59 | 285 | $12,706.90 | $12,711.53 |
$-16.93 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:30pm ET | $47.00 | 270 | $12,690.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $46.55 | 270 | $12,568.50 | $12,590.03 |
$-121.50 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:45am ET | $45.54 | 276 | $12,569.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 12:25pm ET | $45.17 | 276 | $12,465.54 | $12,486.22 |
$-103.80 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:50pm ET | $46.56 | 268 | $12,476.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.40 | 268 | $12,435.20 | $12,444.68 |
$-41.54 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3.7d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 11:45am ET | $46.92 | 265 | $12,432.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $47.79 | 265 | $12,663.03 | $12,675.23 |
+$230.55 (+1.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $47.49 | 266 | $12,632.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.78 | 266 | $12,709.48 | $12,752.37 |
+$77.14 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:40pm ET | $48.66 | 262 | $12,747.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.74 | 262 | $13,031.88 | $13,036.64 |
+$284.27 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $49.12 | 265 | $13,016.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.99 | 265 | $13,246.03 | $13,265.87 |
+$229.23 (+1.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 11:05am ET | $50.65 | 261 | $13,219.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $50.26 | 261 | $13,116.56 | $13,162.77 |
$-103.09 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $50.03 | 263 | $13,159.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:05am ET | $50.87 | 263 | $13,377.50 | $13,381.07 |
+$218.29 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 1:40pm ET | $52.50 | 254 | $13,335.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.83 | 254 | $13,164.82 | $13,210.89 |
$-170.18 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $53.08 | 248 | $13,163.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $53.44 | 248 | $13,251.88 | $13,298.93 |
+$88.04 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.19 | 245 | $13,276.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $53.73 | 245 | $13,163.85 | $13,186.23 |
$-112.70 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 2:20pm ET | $54.58 | 241 | $13,154.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $55.47 | 241 | $13,368.27 | $13,399.52 |
+$213.29 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.94 | 243 | $13,350.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $55.45 | 243 | $13,474.35 | $13,523.45 |
+$123.93 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.65 | 247 | $13,498.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:20am ET | $55.53 | 247 | $13,714.68 | $13,739.58 |
+$216.13 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 11:10am ET | $56.67 | 242 | $13,712.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $56.17 | 242 | $13,591.93 | $13,618.58 |
$-121.00 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $55.47 | 245 | $13,590.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.51 | 245 | $13,844.95 | $13,873.38 |
+$254.80 (+1.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $56.67 | 244 | $13,827.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $56.73 | 244 | $13,842.12 | $13,888.02 |
+$14.64 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 12:05pm ET | $56.22 | 247 | $13,885.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 1:20pm ET | $55.44 | 247 | $13,693.68 | $13,696.59 |
$-191.43 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 2:00pm ET | $56.65 | 241 | $13,653.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:20am ET | $57.53 | 241 | $13,864.73 | $13,907.47 |
+$210.88 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $57.47 | 242 | $13,906.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $57.99 | 242 | $14,032.61 | $14,033.55 |
+$126.08 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:30pm ET | $58.74 | 238 | $13,980.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 11:50am ET | $59.64 | 238 | $14,194.32 | $14,247.75 |
+$214.20 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 12:40pm ET | $60.17 | 236 | $14,198.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:05pm ET | $59.69 | 236 | $14,086.84 | $14,135.65 |
$-112.10 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:15pm ET | $59.63 | 237 | $14,131.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $60.64 | 237 | $14,371.68 | $14,376.20 |
+$240.55 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:05am ET | $60.66 | 236 | $14,315.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 11:40am ET | $61.58 | 236 | $14,531.70 | $14,592.14 |
+$215.94 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:15pm ET | $62.58 | 233 | $14,579.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 1:15pm ET | $62.56 | 233 | $14,575.32 | $14,587.48 |
$-4.66 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 1:15pm ET | $60.48 | 241 | $14,575.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $59.99 | 241 | $14,456.39 | $14,468.19 |
$-119.29 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $59.51 | 243 | $14,462.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 12:00pm ET | $59.06 | 243 | $14,350.37 | $14,356.41 |
$-111.78 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $59.51 | 241 | $14,343.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $60.46 | 241 | $14,569.66 | $14,582.95 |
+$226.54 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.35 | 258 | $14,537.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $57.22 | 258 | $14,762.76 | $14,808.70 |
+$225.75 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $58.72 | 252 | $14,796.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $58.22 | 252 | $14,671.44 | $14,683.96 |
$-124.74 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 12:45pm ET | $56.83 | 258 | $14,660.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:45pm ET | $57.21 | 258 | $14,760.18 | $14,783.29 |
+$99.33 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:45pm ET | $55.68 | 265 | $14,755.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $56.63 | 265 | $15,006.95 | $15,035.04 |
+$251.75 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $54.12 | 277 | $14,989.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $53.62 | 277 | $14,851.36 | $14,896.54 |
$-138.50 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:50am ET | $55.42 | 268 | $14,852.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 3:35pm ET | $54.99 | 268 | $14,738.66 | $14,782.64 |
$-113.90 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:40am ET | $56.37 | 262 | $14,767.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.25 | 262 | $14,999.50 | $15,014.51 |
+$231.87 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:40pm ET | $57.93 | 259 | $15,003.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 12:10pm ET | $58.80 | 259 | $15,229.20 | $15,239.84 |
+$225.33 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 1:10pm ET | $59.51 | 256 | $15,235.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $58.88 | 256 | $15,074.56 | $15,078.56 |
$-161.28 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 12:45pm ET | $59.26 | 254 | $15,050.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.46 | 254 | $14,594.84 | $14,622.63 |
$-455.93 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.74 | 262 | $14,602.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:30am ET | $55.19 | 262 | $14,458.47 | $14,478.53 |
$-144.10 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,478.53
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,478.53
Total Return:
+44.79%