Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:15:04

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

26
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.6/35
Total Return
10.5/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 34.8/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 25.7

30-Day Momentum

4
+1.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.8 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
28,571
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$11,379.41
Current Value
$11,735.15
Period P&L
$355.72
Max Drawdown
-9.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
3 / 4
Best Trade
+7.77%
Worst Trade
-5.17%
Avg Trade Return
+0.52%
Avg Hold Time
1.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$162,100.96
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$355.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$355.72
Gross Return
+3.13%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $11,379.41 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2025 9:30am ET $141.22 80 $11,297.59
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2025 11:25am ET $143.66 80 $11,492.40 $11,574.24 +$194.81
(+1.7%)
RESISTANCE
1.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:05am ET $213.15 54 $11,510.10
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:10am ET $212.03 54 $11,449.62 $11,513.76 $-60.48
(-0.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 10:25am ET $200.33 57 $11,418.81
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:30am ET $199.58 57 $11,376.06 $11,471.01 $-42.75
(-0.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
4 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:50am ET $219.38 52 $11,407.78
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 9:55am ET $222.20 52 $11,554.14 $11,617.38 +$146.37
(+1.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $375.35 30 $11,260.50
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 1:50pm ET $404.52 30 $12,135.60 $12,492.48 +$875.10
(+7.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $368.80 33 $12,170.56
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:30pm ET $349.75 33 $11,541.75 $11,863.67 $-628.81
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET $327.98 36 $11,807.28
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $324.41 36 $11,678.76 $11,735.15 $-128.52
(-1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,735.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,735.15
Total Return: +17.35%
Back to Penelope Swing