Compendium › Penelope Swing › DOTUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DOTUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 4 trades in period

+7.54%
Last Year Return
$10,006.30
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$9,304.71
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:30:49

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.6 oversold
20d Trend
-46.1%
5d Trend
-40.6%
EMA20 Dist
-40.2%
ATR%
14.7%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 49%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.2/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 14.9/100
× Confidence 0.49 = 7.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (49%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,301
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$9,304.71
Current Value
$10,006.30
Period P&L
$701.57
Max Drawdown
-24.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.68

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+8.00%
Worst Trade
-1.30%
Avg Trade Return
+2.40%
Avg Hold Time
48m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$74,630.82
Estimated Fees
$186.58
Gross P&L
$701.57
Net P&L (after fees)
$514.99
Gross Return
+7.54%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.53%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DOTUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $9,304.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2025 3:45am ET $4.00 2,323 $9,304.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2025 4:00am ET $3.95 2,323 $9,183.91 $9,137.68 $-167.04
(-1.3%) 		RESISTANCE
18m held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2025 7:25am ET $3.98 2,295 $9,137.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2025 8:50am ET $3.99 2,295 $9,164.76 $9,119.01 $-18.68
(+0.3%) 		RESISTANCE
1.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 9:40pm ET $2.92 3,120 $9,119.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 10:10pm ET $3.00 3,120 $9,356.11 $9,309.92 +$190.91
(+2.6%) 		RESISTANCE
30m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $1.15 8,096 $9,309.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 8:10pm ET $1.24 8,096 $10,054.71 $10,006.30 +$696.38
(+8.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,006.30
Net Profit/Loss: +$6.30
Total Return: +0.06%
Back to Penelope Swing