Compendium › Penelope Swing › PEPEUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PEPEUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-06-20 to present • 3 trades in period

-25.00%
Last Year Return
$44,734.67
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$59,643.94
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-20 14:14:40

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored May 9, 2026

45
Lifetime
Confidence: 73%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
23.8/35
Total Return
21.1/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality 61.5/100
× Confidence 0.73 = 44.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (73%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,338
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-20 → 2026-06-20
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$59,643.94
Current Value
$44,734.67
Period P&L
$-14,909.21
Max Drawdown
-51.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.46

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+7.50%
Worst Trade
-28.93%
Avg Trade Return
-7.23%
Avg Hold Time
38m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$279,506.32
Estimated Fees
$698.77
Gross P&L
$-14,909.21
Net P&L (after fees)
$-15,607.98
Gross Return
-25.00%
Net Return (after fees)
-26.17%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $59,643.94 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET $0.00000726 8,215,410,228 $59,643.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $0.00000516 8,215,410,228 $42,391.52 $42,136.43 $-17,507.45
(-28.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $0.00000320 13,167,633,841 $42,136.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 8:00pm ET $0.00000344 13,167,633,841 $45,296.66 $45,078.08 +$2,941.65
(+7.5%) 		RESISTANCE
48m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 1:15pm ET $0.00000381 11,831,516,454 $45,078.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 2:15pm ET $0.00000380 11,831,516,454 $44,959.76 $44,734.67 $-343.41
(-0.3%) 		RESISTANCE
1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $44,734.67
Net Profit/Loss: +$34,734.67
Total Return: +347.35%
Back to Penelope Swing