Compendium › Penelope Swing › SOXL
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SOXL
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-06-20 to present • 34 trades in period

+23.44%
Last Year Return
$9,881.55
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$8,004.85
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-20 13:13:05

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
50.5 neutral
20d Trend
+69.9%
5d Trend
-8.4%
EMA20 Dist
+0.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
31%
Bounce Ratio
1.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 8.1/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 7.6

30-Day Momentum

41
+7.3%
30d Return
86%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 52.2 Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+33 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
36,826
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
250 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$8,004.85
Current Value
$9,881.55
Period P&L
$1,876.72
Max Drawdown
-34.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
19 / 15
Best Trade
+13.74%
Worst Trade
-5.68%
Avg Trade Return
+0.72%
Avg Hold Time
4.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$573,382.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,876.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,876.72
Gross Return
+23.44%
Net Return (after fees)
+23.44%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOXL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 250 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 34 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $8,004.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2025 9:50am ET $24.93 321 $8,002.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2025 11:05am ET $25.05 321 $8,039.45 $8,041.76 +$36.92
(+0.5%) 		RESISTANCE
1.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 9:30am ET $37.42 214 $8,006.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 11:25am ET $35.33 214 $7,560.60 $7,595.42 $-446.34
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 22, 2025 9:30am ET $37.06 204 $7,560.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2025 11:05am ET $37.86 204 $7,723.44 $7,758.62 +$163.20
(+2.2%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 9:35am ET $43.95 176 $7,734.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 4, 2025 1:00pm ET $42.24 176 $7,434.24 $7,458.54 $-300.08
(-3.9%) 		RESISTANCE
3.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET $39.89 186 $7,418.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 11:05am ET $41.86 186 $7,785.96 $7,825.80 +$367.26
(+5.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $39.22 199 $7,803.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 11:10am ET $38.96 199 $7,753.02 $7,775.03 $-50.76
(-0.7%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $32.16 241 $7,751.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 10:45am ET $30.47 241 $7,343.27 $7,367.17 $-407.87
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET $42.21 174 $7,344.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 11:05am ET $41.78 174 $7,269.74 $7,292.41 $-74.75
(-1.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 9:30am ET $35.77 203 $7,261.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 11:05am ET $37.20 203 $7,551.60 $7,582.66 +$290.25
(+4.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 9:45am ET $62.84 120 $7,540.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 11:35am ET $61.82 120 $7,418.40 $7,460.26 $-122.40
(-1.6%) 		RESISTANCE
1.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET $61.43 121 $7,432.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:30pm ET $58.31 121 $7,055.51 $7,082.84 $-377.42
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $50.61 139 $7,034.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:30am ET $53.97 139 $7,501.83 $7,549.88 +$467.04
(+6.6%) 		RESISTANCE
1.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET $63.62 118 $7,506.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 12:25pm ET $67.86 118 $8,006.89 $8,050.20 +$500.32
(+6.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 10:00am ET $65.39 123 $8,042.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 10:05am ET $65.43 123 $8,048.50 $8,055.73 +$5.53
(+0.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $54.90 146 $8,015.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET $53.77 146 $7,850.41 $7,890.74 $-164.99
(-2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $50.44 156 $7,868.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET $47.62 156 $7,427.94 $7,450.04 $-440.70
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 9:50am ET $51.00 146 $7,445.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 3:05pm ET $55.37 146 $8,084.02 $8,088.07 +$638.03
(+8.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $48.84 165 $8,058.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 3:05pm ET $55.55 165 $9,165.75 $9,195.22 +$1,107.15
(+13.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.6h held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 10:45am ET $52.22 176 $9,191.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 10:50am ET $51.72 176 $9,102.72 $9,106.34 $-88.88
(-1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:55am ET $43.76 208 $9,102.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 10:00am ET $43.75 208 $9,100.00 $9,104.26 $-2.08
(-0.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $47.12 193 $9,094.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET $46.97 193 $9,065.21 $9,075.31 $-28.95
(-0.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:30am ET $119.17 76 $9,056.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:35am ET $120.27 76 $9,140.28 $9,158.67 +$83.36
(+0.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 10:35am ET $107.82 84 $9,056.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET $106.09 84 $8,911.56 $9,013.77 $-144.90
(-1.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
24 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $173.53 51 $8,850.03 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 9:35am ET $174.87 51 $8,918.37 $9,082.11 +$68.34
(+0.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
25 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $165.77 54 $8,951.58 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $166.11 54 $8,969.94 $9,100.47 +$18.36
(+0.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
26 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:50am ET $158.00 57 $9,006.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:55am ET $161.90 57 $9,228.31 $9,322.78 +$222.31
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
27 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:10am ET $138.54 67 $9,282.18 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 10:15am ET $136.84 67 $9,168.28 $9,208.88 $-113.90
(-1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
28 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:45am ET $217.37 42 $9,129.54 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:50am ET $217.49 42 $9,134.58 $9,213.92 +$5.04
(+0.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
29 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $259.11 35 $9,068.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:25am ET $282.77 35 $9,896.95 $10,042.02 +$828.10
(+9.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
40m held
30 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $228.50 43 $9,825.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET $215.52 43 $9,267.30 $9,483.82 $-558.20
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
15m held
31 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:20am ET $211.17 44 $9,291.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:25am ET $217.07 44 $9,551.08 $9,743.42 +$259.60
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
32 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:00am ET $190.67 51 $9,724.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 11:05am ET $191.85 51 $9,784.35 $9,803.60 +$60.18
(+0.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
33 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 11:00am ET $252.87 38 $9,609.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 11:05am ET $252.99 38 $9,613.62 $9,808.16 +$4.56
(+0.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
34 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $236.17 41 $9,682.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:45pm ET $237.96 41 $9,756.36 $9,881.55 +$73.39
(+0.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,881.55
Net Profit/Loss: $-118.45
Total Return: -1.18%
Back to Penelope Swing