Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:30:41

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
67.3 neutral
20d Trend
+15.2%
5d Trend
+22.2%
EMA20 Dist
+12.2%
ATR%
4.2%
Range Pos
70%
Bounce Ratio
3.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026

78
Lifetime
Confidence: 16%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
72.8/35
Total Return
50.2/25
Win Rate
97.1/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
98.2/10
Raw Quality 475.9/100
× Confidence 0.16 = 78.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (16%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
40,895
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,709.71
Current Value
$10,854.84
Period P&L
$145.13
Max Drawdown
-0.6%
Sharpe Ratio
2.87

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
2 / 0
Best Trade
+0.91%
Worst Trade
+0.44%
Avg Trade Return
+0.68%
Avg Hold Time
50m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$42,908.89
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$145.13
Net P&L (after fees)
$145.13
Gross Return
+1.36%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.36%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,709.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 12, 2025 9:30am ET $129.75 82 $10,639.46
🔴 SELL May 12, 2025 11:05am ET $130.33 82 $10,686.65 $10,756.90 +$47.19
(+0.4%)
RESISTANCE
1.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $67.99 158 $10,742.42
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:35am ET $68.61 158 $10,840.36 $10,854.84 +$97.94
(+0.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,854.84
Net Profit/Loss: +$854.84
Total Return: +8.55%
Back to Penelope Swing