Compendium › Penelope Swing › XRPUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XRPUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 2 trades in period

+6.66%
Last Year Return
$18,233.88
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$17,094.99
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:54:21

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

41
Lifetime
Confidence: 53%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
26.1/35
Total Return
16.0/25
Win Rate
14.7/15
Profit Factor
11.6/15
Consistency
9.2/10
Raw Quality 77.6/100
× Confidence 0.53 = 41.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (53%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,281
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$17,094.99
Current Value
$18,233.88
Period P&L
$1,138.89
Max Drawdown
-11.0%
Sharpe Ratio
4.99

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
2 / 0
Best Trade
+4.55%
Worst Trade
+3.03%
Avg Trade Return
+3.79%
Avg Hold Time
1.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$70,557.82
Estimated Fees
$176.39
Gross P&L
$1,138.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$962.50
Gross Return
+6.66%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.63%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $17,094.99 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET $1.15 14,802 $17,094.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 5:25pm ET $1.19 14,802 $17,613.05 $17,526.28 +$431.30
(+3.0%) 		RESISTANCE
2.1h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET $1.18 14,882 $17,526.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 8:00pm ET $1.23 14,882 $18,323.50 $18,233.88 +$707.59
(+4.5%) 		RESISTANCE
54m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,233.88
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,233.88
Total Return: +82.34%
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