Compendium › Penelope Swing › MARA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MARA
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 3 trades in period

-1.03%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,266.37
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$9,362.77
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:12:35

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 11.8/100
× Confidence 0.76 = 8.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,893
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,362.77
Current Value
$9,266.37
Period P&L
$-96.41
Max Drawdown
-20.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.56

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+0.23%
Worst Trade
-1.20%
Avg Trade Return
-0.34%
Avg Hold Time
5m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$55,657.67
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-96.41
Net P&L (after fees)
$-96.41
Gross Return
-1.03%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.03%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $9,362.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:20am ET $8.77 1,068 $9,361.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET $8.66 1,068 $9,248.88 $9,250.64 $-112.14
(-1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET $8.52 1,086 $9,247.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:40am ET $8.53 1,086 $9,269.01 $9,272.36 +$21.72
(+0.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 10:25am ET $7.89 1,174 $9,268.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 10:30am ET $7.89 1,174 $9,262.74 $9,266.37 $-5.99
(-0.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,266.37
Net Profit/Loss: $-733.63
Total Return: -7.34%
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