Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:08:19

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.7/35
Total Return
6.6/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 19.5/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 16.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,043
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,256.88
Current Value
$10,516.42
Period P&L
$259.54
Max Drawdown
-24.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.41

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
4 / 2
Best Trade
+1.82%
Worst Trade
-1.28%
Avg Trade Return
+0.42%
Avg Hold Time
1.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$124,154.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$259.54
Net P&L (after fees)
$259.54
Gross Return
+2.53%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.53%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,256.88 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET $16.45 623 $10,245.24
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 12:10pm ET $16.24 623 $10,114.41 $10,126.04 $-130.83
(-1.3%)
RESISTANCE
2.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 11:35am ET $13.17 769 $10,123.89
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 12:25pm ET $13.41 769 $10,308.45 $10,310.60 +$184.56
(+1.8%)
RESISTANCE
48m held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 10:15am ET $13.98 737 $10,303.26
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 11:50am ET $14.05 737 $10,351.17 $10,358.50 +$47.90
(+0.5%)
RESISTANCE
1.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET $13.96 742 $10,358.32
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:05pm ET $14.01 742 $10,394.38 $10,394.57 +$36.06
(+0.3%)
RESISTANCE
2.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:55am ET $14.28 727 $10,381.63
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 10:00am ET $14.49 727 $10,534.23 $10,547.17 +$152.60
(+1.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:35am ET $17.13 615 $10,534.95
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET $17.08 615 $10,504.20 $10,516.42 $-30.75
(-0.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,516.42
Net Profit/Loss: +$516.42
Total Return: +5.16%
Back to Penelope Swing