Compendium › Penelope Swing › DKNG
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DKNG
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 15:20:00+00 • 5 trades executed

-9.92%
2 Years Return
$8,968.36
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$9,955.89
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:23:25

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.5 oversold
20d Trend
-25.9%
5d Trend
-7.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
5.3%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 11%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
50.3/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
0.8/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.11 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (11%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
59,605
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
534 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,955.89
Current Value
$8,968.36
Total P&L
$-987.53
Max Drawdown
-10.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-1.18

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+0.43%
Worst Trade
-5.66%
Avg Trade Return
-2.56%
Avg Hold Time
1.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$74,719.91
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-987.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$-987.53
Gross Return
-9.92%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.92%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DKNG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 534 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $9,955.89 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 28, 2024 9:30am ET $37.10 268 $9,941.46 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2024 12:10pm ET $36.03 268 $9,654.70 $9,669.13 $-286.76
(-2.9%) 		RESISTANCE
2.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 2, 2024 9:45am ET $32.87 294 $9,663.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 2, 2024 11:05am ET $31.01 294 $9,116.94 $9,122.29 $-546.84
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 10:35am ET $31.52 289 $9,109.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 11:20am ET $31.66 289 $9,148.30 $9,161.31 +$39.02
(+0.4%) 		RESISTANCE
48m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 30, 2025 10:35am ET $38.40 238 $9,139.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 30, 2025 1:10pm ET $37.59 238 $8,946.25 $8,968.36 $-192.95
(-2.1%) 		RESISTANCE
2.6h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,968.36
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,031.64
Total Return: -10.32%
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