Compendium › Penelope Swing › DOTUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DOTUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 16:25:00+00 • 19 trades executed

-0.48%
2 Years Return
$10,006.30
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$10,054.56
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:30:43

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.6 oversold
20d Trend
-46.1%
5d Trend
-40.6%
EMA20 Dist
-40.2%
ATR%
14.7%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 49%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.2/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 14.9/100
× Confidence 0.49 = 7.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (49%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,418
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,054.56
Current Value
$10,006.30
Total P&L
$-48.28
Max Drawdown
-24.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.13

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
16
Winners / Losers
10 / 6
Best Trade
+8.00%
Worst Trade
-10.54%
Avg Trade Return
+0.58%
Avg Hold Time
1.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$334,795.54
Estimated Fees
$836.99
Gross P&L
$-48.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$-885.27
Gross Return
-0.48%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.80%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DOTUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,054.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 7, 2024 2:00pm ET $6.33 1,588 $10,054.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2024 3:40pm ET $6.64 1,588 $10,540.61 $10,489.12 +$434.56
(+4.8%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2024 9:40pm ET $5.52 1,900 $10,489.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2024 11:20pm ET $5.72 1,900 $10,867.26 $10,813.87 +$324.75
(+3.6%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2024 5:35am ET $5.36 2,018 $10,813.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2024 6:25am ET $5.43 2,018 $10,963.23 $10,908.78 +$94.91
(+1.4%) 		RESISTANCE
48m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 16, 2024 9:05pm ET $5.60 1,947 $10,908.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 16, 2024 10:25pm ET $5.69 1,947 $11,079.11 $11,024.14 +$115.36
(+1.6%) 		RESISTANCE
1.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 23, 2024 12:00pm ET $8.40 1,313 $11,024.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 23, 2024 1:40pm ET $8.77 1,313 $11,515.27 $11,458.92 +$434.78
(+4.5%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 23, 2024 8:55pm ET $9.50 1,206 $11,458.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 23, 2024 9:45pm ET $9.55 1,206 $11,525.28 $11,467.82 +$8.89
(+0.6%) 		RESISTANCE
48m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2024 9:30am ET $9.10 1,261 $11,467.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2024 10:30am ET $9.57 1,261 $12,062.16 $12,003.34 +$535.52
(+5.2%) 		RESISTANCE
1h held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 3:45pm ET $8.58 1,399 $12,003.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET $7.68 1,399 $10,737.69 $10,680.84 $-1,322.50
(-10.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2024 11:05am ET $7.80 1,369 $10,680.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2024 1:40pm ET $7.91 1,369 $10,827.36 $10,773.59 +$92.75
(+1.4%) 		RESISTANCE
2.6h held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2024 12:50pm ET $7.07 1,523 $10,773.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2024 3:55pm ET $6.95 1,523 $10,581.84 $10,528.46 $-245.14
(-1.8%) 		RESISTANCE
3.1h held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 20, 2024 4:05am ET $6.40 1,644 $10,528.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 20, 2024 6:55am ET $6.07 1,644 $9,979.90 $9,928.63 $-599.83
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET $4.55 2,181 $9,928.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET $4.29 2,181 $9,352.93 $9,304.72 $-623.90
(-5.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2025 3:45am ET $4.00 2,323 $9,304.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2025 4:00am ET $3.95 2,323 $9,183.91 $9,137.68 $-167.04
(-1.3%) 		RESISTANCE
18m held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2025 7:25am ET $3.98 2,295 $9,137.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2025 8:50am ET $3.99 2,295 $9,164.76 $9,119.01 $-18.68
(+0.3%) 		RESISTANCE
1.4h held
15 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 9:40pm ET $2.92 3,120 $9,119.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 10:10pm ET $3.00 3,120 $9,356.11 $9,309.92 +$190.91
(+2.6%) 		RESISTANCE
30m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $1.15 8,096 $9,309.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 8:10pm ET $1.24 8,096 $10,054.71 $10,006.30 +$696.38
(+8.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,006.30
Net Profit/Loss: +$6.30
Total Return: +0.06%
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