MARA Penelope Swing's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 15:15:00+00 • 51 trades executed
-2.81%
2 Years Return
$9,266.37
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$9,534.39
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
11.8/100
× Confidence 0.76
= 8.9
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
87,572
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,534.39
Current Value
$9,266.37
Total P&L
$-268.03
Max Drawdown
-20.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
33
Winners / Losers
19 /
14
Best Trade
+7.38%
Worst Trade
-5.52%
Avg Trade Return
-0.04%
Avg Hold Time
3.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$618,241.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-268.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$-268.03
Gross Return
-2.81%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.81%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $9,534.39 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 10, 2024 10:35am ET | $18.21 | 523 | $9,523.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 10, 2024 12:20pm ET | $17.93 | 523 | $9,374.78 | $9,385.32 |
$-149.06 (-1.6%) |
RESISTANCE
1.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2024 9:30am ET | $17.94 | 523 | $9,383.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2024 11:10am ET | $18.54 | 523 | $9,696.42 | $9,698.65 |
+$313.33 (+3.3%) |
RESISTANCE
1.7h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 18, 2024 10:45am ET | $23.95 | 405 | $9,697.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 18, 2024 12:10pm ET | $24.17 | 405 | $9,788.85 | $9,789.78 |
+$91.13 (+0.9%) |
RESISTANCE
1.4h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2024 9:40am ET | $15.74 | 622 | $9,787.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2024 11:15am ET | $15.78 | 622 | $9,812.05 | $9,814.66 |
+$24.88 (+0.2%) |
RESISTANCE
1.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2024 10:05am ET | $24.08 | 407 | $9,800.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 2:05pm ET | $22.85 | 407 | $9,298.85 | $9,312.95 |
$-501.71 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2024 9:45am ET | $19.42 | 479 | $9,302.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2024 10:50am ET | $20.75 | 479 | $9,939.20 | $9,949.97 |
+$637.02 (+6.8%) |
RESISTANCE
1.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2024 10:25am ET | $22.71 | 438 | $9,944.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2024 11:30am ET | $24.38 | 438 | $10,678.40 | $10,683.57 |
+$733.61 (+7.4%) |
RESISTANCE
1.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 29, 2024 12:50pm ET | $27.38 | 390 | $10,678.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2024 9:30am ET | $25.94 | 390 | $10,116.64 | $10,122.01 |
$-561.56 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2024 10:55am ET | $25.53 | 396 | $10,109.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2024 12:10pm ET | $25.69 | 396 | $10,174.58 | $10,186.76 |
+$64.74 (+0.6%) |
RESISTANCE
1.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 3:05pm ET | $22.57 | 451 | $10,179.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 3:40pm ET | $21.33 | 451 | $9,617.58 | $9,625.26 |
$-561.50 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
36m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2024 10:20am ET | $16.87 | 570 | $9,615.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2024 11:25am ET | $17.32 | 570 | $9,872.40 | $9,881.76 |
+$256.50 (+2.7%) |
RESISTANCE
1.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2025 9:40am ET | $19.07 | 518 | $9,878.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2025 11:20am ET | $19.22 | 518 | $9,953.37 | $9,956.87 |
+$75.11 (+0.8%) |
RESISTANCE
1.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $18.63 | 534 | $9,948.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 1:10pm ET | $17.70 | 534 | $9,449.13 | $9,457.58 |
$-499.29 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 10:05am ET | $12.73 | 742 | $9,445.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 11:25am ET | $12.09 | 742 | $8,967.07 | $8,978.99 |
$-478.59 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 11:05am ET | $14.24 | 630 | $8,968.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2025 11:30am ET | $14.54 | 630 | $9,160.26 | $9,170.95 |
+$191.96 (+2.1%) |
RESISTANCE
24m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:50am ET | $14.63 | 627 | $9,169.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 11:35am ET | $14.38 | 627 | $9,016.26 | $9,017.34 |
$-153.62 (-1.7%) |
RESISTANCE
1.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 28, 2025 10:05am ET | $12.63 | 713 | $9,007.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 28, 2025 11:30am ET | $12.71 | 713 | $9,058.67 | $9,068.89 |
+$51.55 (+0.6%) |
RESISTANCE
1.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:40am ET | $11.42 | 794 | $9,067.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 11:15am ET | $11.37 | 794 | $9,023.81 | $9,025.22 |
$-43.67 (-0.5%) |
RESISTANCE
1.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 11:50am ET | $11.18 | 807 | $9,022.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 12:50pm ET | $11.16 | 807 | $9,002.09 | $9,005.04 |
$-20.18 (-0.2%) |
RESISTANCE
1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2025 10:00am ET | $13.13 | 685 | $8,992.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2025 11:20am ET | $13.31 | 685 | $9,113.93 | $9,126.01 |
+$120.97 (+1.4%) |
RESISTANCE
1.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 9:35am ET | $13.38 | 682 | $9,125.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2025 12:00pm ET | $12.99 | 682 | $8,855.77 | $8,856.62 |
$-269.39 (-3.0%) |
RESISTANCE
2.4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 9:45am ET | $15.85 | 558 | $8,844.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2025 11:20am ET | $15.97 | 558 | $8,908.47 | $8,920.79 |
+$64.17 (+0.7%) |
RESISTANCE
1.6h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $17.71 | 503 | $8,908.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2025 11:10am ET | $17.87 | 503 | $8,987.55 | $9,000.22 |
+$79.42 (+0.9%) |
RESISTANCE
1.7h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $19.95 | 451 | $8,997.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 2:30pm ET | $18.91 | 451 | $8,527.55 | $8,530.32 |
$-469.90 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $17.02 | 501 | $8,527.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 11:00am ET | $17.58 | 501 | $8,807.58 | $8,810.88 |
+$280.56 (+3.3%) |
RESISTANCE
1.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $14.98 | 588 | $8,808.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 12:15pm ET | $15.05 | 588 | $8,846.46 | $8,849.10 |
+$38.22 (+0.4%) |
RESISTANCE
2.7h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 10:25am ET | $10.72 | 825 | $8,844.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 11:35am ET | $11.04 | 825 | $9,103.88 | $9,108.98 |
+$259.88 (+2.9%) |
RESISTANCE
1.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 9:55am ET | $10.82 | 842 | $9,106.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 11:20am ET | $10.96 | 842 | $9,224.53 | $9,227.28 |
+$118.30 (+1.3%) |
RESISTANCE
1.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.40 | 887 | $9,220.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $10.68 | 887 | $9,468.73 | $9,475.64 |
+$248.36 (+2.7%) |
RESISTANCE
1.6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $7.55 | 1,254 | $9,473.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:40am ET | $7.47 | 1,254 | $9,361.11 | $9,362.78 |
$-112.86 (-1.2%) |
RESISTANCE
1.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:20am ET | $8.77 | 1,068 | $9,361.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET | $8.66 | 1,068 | $9,248.88 | $9,250.64 |
$-112.14 (-1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.52 | 1,086 | $9,247.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $8.53 | 1,086 | $9,269.01 | $9,272.36 |
+$21.72 (+0.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $7.89 | 1,174 | $9,268.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $7.89 | 1,174 | $9,262.74 | $9,266.37 |
$-5.99 (-0.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,266.37
Net Profit/Loss:
$-733.63
Total Return:
-7.34%