PEPEUSD Penelope Swing's Analysis
2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-06-20 18:10:00+00 • 139 trades executed
-35.42%
2 Years Return
$44,734.67
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$69,271.65
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.
Strategy Score Scored May 9, 2026
45
Lifetime
Confidence: 73%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
23.8/35
Total Return
21.1/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality
61.5/100
× Confidence 0.73
= 44.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (73%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
208,502
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-06-20 → 2026-06-20
Trading Days
725 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps
Data Gap Notice
The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to API rate limits during data collection or exchange maintenance. Simulation results may be slightly affected.
2024-10-08 (60 candles)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$69,271.65
Current Value
$44,734.67
Total P&L
$-24,536.92
Max Drawdown
-51.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
45
Winners / Losers
27 /
18
Best Trade
+7.50%
Worst Trade
-28.93%
Avg Trade Return
-0.27%
Avg Hold Time
1.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$6,252,892.15
Estimated Fees
$15,632.23
Gross P&L
$-24,536.92
Net P&L (after fees)
$-40,169.15
Gross Return
-35.42%
Net Return (after fees)
-57.99%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 725 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $69,271.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 3, 2024 9:30pm ET | $0.00000943 | 7,345,873,573 | $69,271.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2024 10:50pm ET | $0.00000978 | 7,345,873,573 | $71,842.64 | $71,489.86 |
+$2,218.27 (+3.7%) |
RESISTANCE
1.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 4, 2024 8:00pm ET | $0.00000856 | 8,351,618,921 | $71,489.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 4, 2024 9:45pm ET | $0.00000859 | 8,351,618,921 | $71,740.41 | $71,382.33 |
$-107.53 (+0.3%) |
RESISTANCE
1.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 4, 2024 10:55pm ET | $0.00000793 | 9,001,554,965 | $71,382.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 5, 2024 12:25am ET | $0.00000821 | 9,001,554,965 | $73,902.77 | $73,539.55 |
+$2,157.22 (+3.5%) |
RESISTANCE
1.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 2, 2024 11:05am ET | $0.00000960 | 7,660,370,158 | $73,539.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 2, 2024 12:30pm ET | $0.00000973 | 7,660,370,158 | $74,535.40 | $74,165.21 |
+$625.66 (+1.4%) |
RESISTANCE
1.4h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 7:00am ET | $0.00000604 | 12,279,008,982 | $74,165.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2024 8:00am ET | $0.00000635 | 12,279,008,982 | $77,971.71 | $77,591.36 |
+$3,426.15 (+5.1%) |
RESISTANCE
1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2024 6:10pm ET | $0.00000758 | 10,236,327,801 | $77,591.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2024 7:25pm ET | $0.00000774 | 10,236,327,801 | $79,229.18 | $78,837.13 |
+$1,245.76 (+2.1%) |
RESISTANCE
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2024 11:05am ET | $0.00001010 | 7,805,656,022 | $78,837.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2024 12:05pm ET | $0.00001040 | 7,805,656,022 | $81,178.82 | $80,778.78 |
+$1,941.66 (+3.0%) |
RESISTANCE
1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2024 7:30am ET | $0.00000999 | 8,085,964,240 | $80,778.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2024 10:15am ET | $0.00001002 | 8,085,964,240 | $81,021.36 | $80,616.86 |
$-161.92 (+0.3%) |
RESISTANCE
2.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 25, 2024 7:20pm ET | $0.00000855 | 9,428,872,670 | $80,616.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 25, 2024 8:55pm ET | $0.00000883 | 9,428,872,670 | $83,256.95 | $82,847.26 |
+$2,230.40 (+3.3%) |
RESISTANCE
1.6h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2024 8:35pm ET | $0.00001111 | 7,456,999,204 | $82,847.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2024 10:55pm ET | $0.00001085 | 7,456,999,204 | $80,908.44 | $80,499.05 |
$-2,348.21 (-2.3%) |
RESISTANCE
2.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 8, 2024 7:10am ET | $0.00001081 | 7,446,720,824 | $80,499.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 8, 2024 8:50am ET | $0.00001100 | 7,446,720,824 | $81,913.93 | $81,507.90 |
+$1,008.84 (+1.8%) |
RESISTANCE
1.7h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2024 5:00am ET | $0.00001361 | 5,988,824,145 | $81,507.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2024 5:45am ET | $0.00001259 | 5,988,824,145 | $75,399.30 | $75,007.03 |
$-6,500.87 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2024 10:10pm ET | $0.00002217 | 3,383,266,937 | $75,007.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 11:40pm ET | $0.00002367 | 3,383,266,937 | $80,081.93 | $79,694.21 |
+$4,687.18 (+6.8%) |
RESISTANCE
1.5h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 1:50am ET | $0.00002200 | 3,622,463,910 | $79,694.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2024 3:25am ET | $0.00002281 | 3,622,463,910 | $82,628.40 | $82,222.60 |
+$2,528.39 (+3.7%) |
RESISTANCE
1.6h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 5:55am ET | $0.00002157 | 3,811,895,932 | $82,222.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2024 7:45am ET | $0.00002137 | 3,811,895,932 | $81,460.22 | $81,051.01 |
$-1,171.59 (-0.9%) |
RESISTANCE
1.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 9:40am ET | $0.00002095 | 3,868,783,248 | $81,051.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2024 11:20am ET | $0.00002123 | 3,868,783,248 | $82,134.27 | $81,726.31 |
+$675.30 (+1.3%) |
RESISTANCE
1.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 11:40pm ET | $0.00001969 | 4,150,650,338 | $81,726.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 15, 2024 1:15am ET | $0.00002000 | 4,150,650,338 | $83,013.01 | $82,601.16 |
+$874.85 (+1.6%) |
RESISTANCE
1.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 16, 2024 9:10pm ET | $0.00001964 | 4,205,761,634 | $82,601.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 16, 2024 10:30pm ET | $0.00002041 | 4,205,761,634 | $85,839.59 | $85,418.49 |
+$2,817.33 (+3.9%) |
RESISTANCE
1.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2024 4:20pm ET | $0.00001919 | 4,451,198,180 | $85,418.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2024 5:45pm ET | $0.00001944 | 4,451,198,180 | $86,531.29 | $86,101.42 |
+$682.93 (+1.3%) |
RESISTANCE
1.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 3:45pm ET | $0.00002505 | 3,437,182,361 | $86,101.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET | $0.00002328 | 3,437,182,361 | $80,017.61 | $79,602.31 |
$-6,499.11 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 9:00pm ET | $0.00002469 | 3,224,070,790 | $79,602.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 9:55pm ET | $0.00002312 | 3,224,070,790 | $74,540.52 | $74,155.16 |
$-5,447.15 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
54m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 10:00pm ET | $0.00002323 | 3,192,215,222 | $74,155.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 11:35pm ET | $0.00002330 | 3,192,215,222 | $74,378.61 | $74,007.28 |
$-147.88 (+0.3%) |
RESISTANCE
1.6h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2024 10:40am ET | $0.00002354 | 3,143,894,657 | $74,007.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2024 12:50pm ET | $0.00002222 | 3,143,894,657 | $69,857.34 | $69,497.68 |
$-4,509.60 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 9:10pm ET | $0.00001829 | 3,799,763,682 | $69,497.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 10:05pm ET | $0.00001895 | 3,799,763,682 | $72,005.52 | $71,651.76 |
+$2,154.09 (+3.6%) |
RESISTANCE
54m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2024 1:15pm ET | $0.00001768 | 4,052,701,571 | $71,651.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 3:05pm ET | $0.00001679 | 4,052,701,571 | $68,044.86 | $67,695.62 |
$-3,956.15 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 19, 2025 4:20am ET | $0.00001643 | 4,120,244,541 | $67,695.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 19, 2025 5:15am ET | $0.00001662 | 4,120,244,541 | $68,478.46 | $68,138.03 |
+$442.41 (+1.2%) |
RESISTANCE
54m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 19, 2025 5:45pm ET | $0.00001609 | 4,234,806,033 | $68,138.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 19, 2025 7:45pm ET | $0.00001515 | 4,234,806,033 | $64,157.31 | $63,826.57 |
$-4,311.46 (-5.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2025 4:00pm ET | $0.00001483 | 4,303,882,202 | $63,826.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2025 5:35pm ET | $0.00001466 | 4,303,882,202 | $63,094.91 | $62,777.61 |
$-1,048.96 (-1.1%) |
RESISTANCE
1.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 7:40pm ET | $0.00000987 | 6,360,446,744 | $62,777.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET | $0.00000898 | 6,360,446,744 | $57,116.81 | $56,817.08 |
$-5,960.53 (-9.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 11:25pm ET | $0.00000880 | 6,456,485,876 | $56,817.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 12:40am ET | $0.00000906 | 6,456,485,876 | $58,495.76 | $58,207.48 |
+$1,390.40 (+3.0%) |
RESISTANCE
1.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2025 12:20am ET | $0.00001003 | 5,803,337,980 | $58,207.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2025 1:50am ET | $0.00001003 | 5,803,337,980 | $58,207.48 | $57,916.44 |
$-291.04 (+0.0%) |
RESISTANCE
1.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 6:15am ET | $0.00000754 | 7,681,225,801 | $57,916.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 7:15am ET | $0.00000788 | 7,681,225,801 | $60,528.06 | $60,231.95 |
+$2,315.51 (+4.5%) |
RESISTANCE
1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:00pm ET | $0.00000533 | 11,300,553,106 | $60,231.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 9:55pm ET | $0.00000561 | 11,300,553,106 | $63,396.10 | $63,087.03 |
+$2,855.08 (+5.2%) |
RESISTANCE
54m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2025 5:10pm ET | $0.00000737 | 8,559,977,313 | $63,087.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2025 6:40pm ET | $0.00000696 | 8,559,977,313 | $59,577.44 | $59,270.78 |
$-3,816.25 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2025 8:50am ET | $0.00001369 | 4,329,494,588 | $59,270.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2025 9:05am ET | $0.00001380 | 4,329,494,588 | $59,747.03 | $59,449.48 |
+$178.70 (+0.8%) |
RESISTANCE
18m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 12:05pm ET | $0.00001303 | 4,562,508,120 | $59,449.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2025 12:40pm ET | $0.00001317 | 4,562,508,120 | $60,088.23 | $59,789.39 |
+$339.91 (+1.1%) |
RESISTANCE
36m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2025 1:50pm ET | $0.00001298 | 4,606,270,236 | $59,789.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 3:30pm ET | $0.00001320 | 4,606,270,236 | $60,802.77 | $60,501.29 |
+$711.90 (+1.7%) |
RESISTANCE
1.7h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2025 4:40pm ET | $0.00001325 | 4,566,134,847 | $60,501.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 5:35pm ET | $0.00001337 | 4,566,134,847 | $61,049.22 | $60,745.35 |
+$244.06 (+0.9%) |
RESISTANCE
54m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2025 8:10am ET | $0.00001454 | 4,177,809,259 | $60,745.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $0.00001502 | 4,177,809,259 | $62,750.70 | $62,441.95 |
+$1,696.61 (+3.3%) |
RESISTANCE
1.3h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 30, 2025 7:10pm ET | $0.00001171 | 5,332,361,654 | $62,441.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 30, 2025 9:30pm ET | $0.00001107 | 5,332,361,654 | $59,029.24 | $58,725.57 |
$-3,716.39 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2025 4:30pm ET | $0.00001053 | 5,576,976,782 | $58,725.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2025 5:35pm ET | $0.00001066 | 5,576,976,782 | $59,450.57 | $59,155.13 |
+$429.57 (+1.2%) |
RESISTANCE
1.1h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2025 9:10pm ET | $0.00001053 | 5,617,771,334 | $59,155.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2025 10:30pm ET | $0.00001067 | 5,617,771,334 | $59,941.62 | $59,643.88 |
+$488.75 (+1.3%) |
RESISTANCE
1.3h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET | $0.00000726 | 8,215,410,228 | $59,643.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET | $0.00000516 | 8,215,410,228 | $42,391.52 | $42,136.43 |
$-17,507.45 (-28.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $0.00000320 | 13,167,633,841 | $42,136.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 8:00pm ET | $0.00000344 | 13,167,633,841 | $45,296.66 | $45,078.08 |
+$2,941.65 (+7.5%) |
RESISTANCE
48m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $0.00000381 | 11,831,516,454 | $45,078.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 2:15pm ET | $0.00000380 | 11,831,516,454 | $44,959.76 | $44,734.67 |
$-343.41 (-0.3%) |
RESISTANCE
1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$44,734.67
Net Profit/Loss:
+$34,734.67
Total Return:
+347.35%