Compendium › Penelope Swing › SOLUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SOLUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 15:25:00+00 • 16 trades executed

+13.14%
2 Years Return
$10,793.34
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$9,539.74
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:26:14

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.6 oversold
20d Trend
-38.8%
5d Trend
-41.0%
EMA20 Dist
-37.6%
ATR%
13.7%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 47%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.1/35
Total Return
7.9/25
Win Rate
10.8/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality 27.2/100
× Confidence 0.47 = 12.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (47%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,423
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,539.74
Current Value
$10,793.34
Total P&L
$1,253.60
Max Drawdown
-13.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.38

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
12
Winners / Losers
8 / 4
Best Trade
+9.29%
Worst Trade
-6.27%
Avg Trade Return
+1.63%
Avg Hold Time
1.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$271,204.26
Estimated Fees
$678.01
Gross P&L
$1,253.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$575.59
Gross Return
+13.14%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.03%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOLUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $9,539.74 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 7, 2024 2:10pm ET $153.98 62 $9,539.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2024 3:35pm ET $162.69 62 $10,079.36 $10,030.31 +$490.57
(+5.7%) 		RESISTANCE
1.4h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2024 9:40pm ET $130.52 77 $10,030.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2024 11:20pm ET $133.89 77 $10,289.29 $10,238.49 +$208.18
(+2.6%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 2:20am ET $111.45 92 $10,238.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 3:15am ET $121.80 92 $11,189.31 $11,135.74 +$897.25
(+9.3%) 		RESISTANCE
54m held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET $206.29 54 $11,135.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 5:25pm ET $217.00 54 $11,713.87 $11,656.75 +$521.01
(+5.2%) 		RESISTANCE
1.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 18, 2025 11:45am ET $245.22 48 $11,656.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 18, 2025 1:25pm ET $255.94 48 $12,166.33 $12,106.78 +$450.03
(+4.4%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 19, 2025 9:15am ET $268.60 45 $12,106.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 19, 2025 11:10am ET $268.12 45 $12,085.14 $12,024.66 $-82.12
(-0.2%) 		RESISTANCE
1.9h held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 19, 2025 4:50pm ET $256.01 47 $12,024.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 19, 2025 5:45pm ET $242.86 47 $11,407.01 $11,348.43 $-676.23
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
54m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 19, 2025 6:15pm ET $244.12 46 $11,348.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 19, 2025 9:00pm ET $246.28 46 $11,448.85 $11,391.85 +$43.42
(+0.9%) 		RESISTANCE
2.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET $187.49 61 $11,391.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 10:00pm ET $193.11 61 $11,733.32 $11,675.51 +$283.66
(+3.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 5:55pm ET $140.29 83 $11,675.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2025 7:20pm ET $143.86 83 $11,972.62 $11,913.50 +$237.99
(+2.5%) 		RESISTANCE
1.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2025 2:15pm ET $146.33 81 $11,913.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2025 4:30pm ET $142.89 81 $11,633.43 $11,574.56 $-338.94
(-2.4%) 		RESISTANCE
2.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $72.29 160 $11,574.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET $67.76 160 $10,849.40 $10,793.34 $-781.22
(-6.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,793.34
Net Profit/Loss: +$793.34
Total Return: +7.93%
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