Compendium › Penelope Swing › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 3 trades in period

-2.38%
Year to Date Return
$8,994.76
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$9,213.93
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:05:21

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

27
Lifetime
Confidence: 18%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
46.5/35
Total Return
66.4/25
Win Rate
23.3/15
Profit Factor
12.4/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality 152.4/100
× Confidence 0.18 = 26.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (18%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,494
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,213.93
Current Value
$8,994.76
Period P&L
$-219.18
Max Drawdown
-11.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.40

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+0.66%
Worst Trade
-3.53%
Avg Trade Return
-0.78%
Avg Hold Time
1.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$53,195.29
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-219.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$-219.18
Gross Return
-2.38%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.38%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $9,213.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET $381.06 24 $9,145.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 2:10pm ET $367.63 24 $8,823.00 $8,891.50 $-322.44
(-3.5%) 		RESISTANCE
3.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:30am ET $376.43 23 $8,657.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:35am ET $378.92 23 $8,715.27 $8,948.98 +$57.48
(+0.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $424.00 21 $8,904.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET $426.18 21 $8,949.78 $8,994.76 +$45.78
(+0.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,994.76
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,005.24
Total Return: -10.05%
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