Compendium › Penelope Swing › SOXL
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SOXL
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 25 trades in period

+30.32%
Year to Date Return
$9,881.55
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$7,582.68
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-20 13:12:49

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
50.5 neutral
20d Trend
+69.9%
5d Trend
-8.4%
EMA20 Dist
+0.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
31%
Bounce Ratio
1.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 8.1/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 7.6

30-Day Momentum

41
+7.3%
30d Return
86%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 52.2 Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+33 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,328
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
116 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$7,582.68
Current Value
$9,881.55
Period P&L
$2,298.89
Max Drawdown
-34.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.26

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
15 / 10
Best Trade
+13.74%
Worst Trade
-5.68%
Avg Trade Return
+1.17%
Avg Hold Time
5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$436,037.41
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,298.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,298.89
Gross Return
+30.32%
Net Return (after fees)
+30.32%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOXL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 116 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $7,582.68 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 9:45am ET $62.84 120 $7,540.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 11:35am ET $61.82 120 $7,418.40 $7,460.26 $-122.40
(-1.6%) 		RESISTANCE
1.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET $61.43 121 $7,432.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:30pm ET $58.31 121 $7,055.51 $7,082.84 $-377.42
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $50.61 139 $7,034.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:30am ET $53.97 139 $7,501.83 $7,549.88 +$467.04
(+6.6%) 		RESISTANCE
1.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET $63.62 118 $7,506.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 12:25pm ET $67.86 118 $8,006.89 $8,050.20 +$500.32
(+6.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 10:00am ET $65.39 123 $8,042.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 10:05am ET $65.43 123 $8,048.50 $8,055.73 +$5.53
(+0.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $54.90 146 $8,015.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET $53.77 146 $7,850.41 $7,890.74 $-164.99
(-2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $50.44 156 $7,868.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET $47.62 156 $7,427.94 $7,450.04 $-440.70
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 9:50am ET $51.00 146 $7,445.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 3:05pm ET $55.37 146 $8,084.02 $8,088.07 +$638.03
(+8.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $48.84 165 $8,058.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 3:05pm ET $55.55 165 $9,165.75 $9,195.22 +$1,107.15
(+13.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.6h held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 10:45am ET $52.22 176 $9,191.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 10:50am ET $51.72 176 $9,102.72 $9,106.34 $-88.88
(-1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:55am ET $43.76 208 $9,102.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 10:00am ET $43.75 208 $9,100.00 $9,104.26 $-2.08
(-0.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $47.12 193 $9,094.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET $46.97 193 $9,065.21 $9,075.31 $-28.95
(-0.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:30am ET $119.17 76 $9,056.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:35am ET $120.27 76 $9,140.28 $9,158.67 +$83.36
(+0.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 10:35am ET $107.82 84 $9,056.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET $106.09 84 $8,911.56 $9,013.77 $-144.90
(-1.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
15 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $173.53 51 $8,850.03 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 9:35am ET $174.87 51 $8,918.37 $9,082.11 +$68.34
(+0.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
16 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $165.77 54 $8,951.58 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $166.11 54 $8,969.94 $9,100.47 +$18.36
(+0.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
17 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:50am ET $158.00 57 $9,006.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:55am ET $161.90 57 $9,228.31 $9,322.78 +$222.31
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
18 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:10am ET $138.54 67 $9,282.18 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 10:15am ET $136.84 67 $9,168.28 $9,208.88 $-113.90
(-1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
19 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:45am ET $217.37 42 $9,129.54 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:50am ET $217.49 42 $9,134.58 $9,213.92 +$5.04
(+0.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $259.11 35 $9,068.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:25am ET $282.77 35 $9,896.95 $10,042.02 +$828.10
(+9.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
40m held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $228.50 43 $9,825.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET $215.52 43 $9,267.30 $9,483.82 $-558.20
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
15m held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:20am ET $211.17 44 $9,291.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:25am ET $217.07 44 $9,551.08 $9,743.42 +$259.60
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:00am ET $190.67 51 $9,724.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 11:05am ET $191.85 51 $9,784.35 $9,803.60 +$60.18
(+0.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 11:00am ET $252.87 38 $9,609.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 11:05am ET $252.99 38 $9,613.62 $9,808.16 +$4.56
(+0.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $236.17 41 $9,682.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:45pm ET $237.96 41 $9,756.36 $9,881.55 +$73.39
(+0.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,881.55
Net Profit/Loss: $-118.45
Total Return: -1.18%
Back to Penelope Swing