Compendium › Penelope Swing › ARM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARM
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 18 trades executed

+5.99%
2 Years Return
$11,471.01
Current Value
62%
Win Rate
$10,823.16
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 04:17:15

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.6/35
Total Return
9.9/25
Win Rate
10.0/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 33.9/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 24.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
69,562
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,823.16
Current Value
$11,471.01
Total P&L
$647.83
Max Drawdown
-9.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.15

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
13
Winners / Losers
8 / 5
Best Trade
+6.23%
Worst Trade
-6.01%
Avg Trade Return
+0.51%
Avg Hold Time
1.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$297,359.77
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$647.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$647.83
Gross Return
+5.99%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.99%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,823.16 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 9, 2024 9:40am ET $99.58 108 $10,754.64 — — —
🔴 SELL May 9, 2024 10:55am ET $105.78 108 $11,424.24 $11,492.76 +$669.60
(+6.2%) 		RESISTANCE
1.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 25, 2024 9:50am ET $144.67 79 $11,429.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 25, 2024 11:05am ET $151.39 79 $11,959.81 $12,023.45 +$530.68
(+4.6%) 		RESISTANCE
1.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2024 9:45am ET $130.35 92 $11,992.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 1, 2024 10:40am ET $123.59 92 $11,370.28 $11,401.53 $-621.92
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
54m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 2, 2024 10:55am ET $110.63 103 $11,394.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 2, 2024 11:20am ET $112.99 103 $11,637.97 $11,644.61 +$243.08
(+2.1%) 		RESISTANCE
24m held
5 🟢 BUY Oct 15, 2024 10:35am ET $148.95 78 $11,617.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2024 12:05pm ET $149.86 78 $11,689.08 $11,715.98 +$71.37
(+0.6%) 		RESISTANCE
1.5h held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2025 9:45am ET $163.79 71 $11,628.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2025 11:10am ET $166.23 71 $11,802.44 $11,889.62 +$173.64
(+1.5%) 		RESISTANCE
1.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET $149.53 79 $11,812.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2025 12:35pm ET $146.01 79 $11,534.40 $11,611.14 $-278.48
(-2.4%) 		RESISTANCE
3.1h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 9:35am ET $90.40 128 $11,571.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 10:45am ET $84.97 128 $10,876.16 $10,916.10 $-695.04
(-6.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 11:30am ET $85.89 127 $10,908.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 1:05pm ET $86.97 127 $11,045.19 $11,052.95 +$136.84
(+1.2%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 10:10am ET $98.39 112 $11,019.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 11:05am ET $101.31 112 $11,346.16 $11,379.43 +$326.48
(+3.0%) 		RESISTANCE
54m held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2025 9:30am ET $141.22 80 $11,297.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2025 11:25am ET $143.66 80 $11,492.40 $11,574.24 +$194.81
(+1.7%) 		RESISTANCE
1.9h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:05am ET $213.15 54 $11,510.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:10am ET $212.03 54 $11,449.62 $11,513.76 $-60.48
(-0.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 10:25am ET $200.33 57 $11,418.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:30am ET $199.58 57 $11,376.06 $11,471.01 $-42.75
(-0.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,471.01
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,471.01
Total Return: +14.71%
Back to Penelope Swing