Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:57:00

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 55%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.9/35
Total Return
12.5/25
Win Rate
1.5/15
Profit Factor
3.8/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 33.8/100
× Confidence 0.55 = 18.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (55%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,356
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,583.22
Current Value
$13,139.56
Total P&L
$1,965.70
Max Drawdown
-12.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.36

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
20
Winners / Losers
7 / 13
Best Trade
+10.49%
Worst Trade
-5.53%
Avg Trade Return
+1.44%
Avg Hold Time
54m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$515,153.34
Estimated Fees
$1,287.88
Gross P&L
$1,965.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$677.82
Gross Return
+18.57%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.40%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,583.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 7, 2024 2:10pm ET $31.31 338 $10,583.22
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2024 3:40pm ET $33.69 338 $11,386.35 $11,331.42 +$748.20
(+7.6%)
RESISTANCE
1.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2024 9:40pm ET $25.24 449 $11,331.42
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2024 11:20pm ET $26.36 449 $11,836.59 $11,778.67 +$447.25
(+4.5%)
RESISTANCE
1.7h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 2:20am ET $17.54 672 $11,778.67
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 3:25am ET $18.91 672 $12,698.66 $12,637.47 +$858.81
(+7.8%)
RESISTANCE
1.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2024 5:40am ET $34.40 367 $12,637.47
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2024 7:00am ET $34.95 367 $12,839.52 $12,775.83 +$138.36
(+1.6%)
RESISTANCE
1.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2024 9:20am ET $49.47 258 $12,775.83
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2024 10:30am ET $49.80 258 $12,861.06 $12,796.96 +$21.13
(+0.7%)
RESISTANCE
1.2h held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET $41.10 311 $12,796.96
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 6:25pm ET $45.41 311 $14,139.87 $14,072.52 +$1,275.56
(+10.5%)
RESISTANCE
2.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2024 1:20pm ET $38.79 363 $14,072.52
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2024 3:55pm ET $38.75 363 $14,058.01 $13,987.69 $-84.84
(-0.1%)
RESISTANCE
2.6h held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 20, 2024 4:05am ET $36.15 387 $13,987.69
🔴 SELL Dec 20, 2024 6:35am ET $34.15 387 $13,213.82 $13,145.81 $-841.87
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET $25.17 522 $13,145.81
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 8:55pm ET $23.81 522 $12,432.90 $12,368.95 $-776.86
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2025 1:40pm ET $28.57 433 $12,368.95
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2025 2:05pm ET $28.64 433 $12,399.26 $12,337.34 $-31.62
(+0.2%)
RESISTANCE
24m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $7.79 1,584 $12,337.34
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 8:05pm ET $8.34 1,584 $13,211.73 $13,147.85 +$810.52
(+7.1%)
RESISTANCE
54m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 10:30am ET $9.07 1,449 $13,147.85
🔴 SELL Feb 16, 2026 10:40am ET $9.09 1,449 $13,170.78 $13,170.78 $-42.87
(+0.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
10m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 10:45am ET $9.08 1,451 $13,170.78
🔴 SELL Feb 16, 2026 10:50am ET $9.08 1,451 $13,182.03 $13,182.03 $-54.64
(+0.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 10:55am ET $9.10 1,449 $13,182.03
🔴 SELL Feb 16, 2026 11:00am ET $9.07 1,449 $13,138.04 $13,138.04 $-109.79
(-0.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 11:05am ET $9.13 1,439 $13,138.04
🔴 SELL Feb 16, 2026 11:10am ET $9.11 1,439 $13,109.83 $13,109.83 $-93.82
(-0.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 11:15am ET $9.11 1,440 $13,109.83
🔴 SELL Feb 16, 2026 11:20am ET $9.10 1,440 $13,100.59 $13,100.59 $-74.76
(-0.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 11:25am ET $9.12 1,436 $13,100.59
🔴 SELL Feb 16, 2026 11:30am ET $9.11 1,436 $13,088.35 $13,088.35 $-77.72
(-0.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 11:35am ET $9.08 1,441 $13,088.35
🔴 SELL Feb 16, 2026 11:40am ET $9.09 1,441 $13,097.31 $13,097.31 $-56.50
(+0.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 11:45am ET $9.12 1,436 $13,097.31
🔴 SELL Feb 16, 2026 11:50am ET $9.12 1,436 $13,099.21 $13,099.21 $-63.59
(+0.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 11:55am ET $9.13 1,434 $13,099.21
🔴 SELL Feb 16, 2026 1:20pm ET $9.16 1,434 $13,139.56 $13,139.56 $-25.25
(+0.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,139.56
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,139.56
Total Return: +31.40%
Back to Penelope Swing