Compendium › Penelope Swing › LTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 13:50:00+00 • 14 trades executed

+16.08%
2 Years Return
$12,245.09
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$10,548.79
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:52:27

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.8 oversold
20d Trend
-38.7%
5d Trend
-38.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.1%
ATR%
12.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

22
Lifetime
Confidence: 46%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
13.6/35
Total Return
11.4/25
Win Rate
9.1/15
Profit Factor
6.2/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 46.9/100
× Confidence 0.46 = 21.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (46%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,394
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,548.79
Current Value
$12,245.09
Total P&L
$1,696.31
Max Drawdown
-5.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.52

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
12
Winners / Losers
7 / 5
Best Trade
+7.14%
Worst Trade
-5.07%
Avg Trade Return
+1.82%
Avg Hold Time
1.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$269,754.96
Estimated Fees
$674.39
Gross P&L
$1,696.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,021.92
Gross Return
+16.08%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.69%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,548.79 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 7, 2024 2:10pm ET $75.88 139 $10,548.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2024 3:40pm ET $79.78 139 $11,090.68 $11,036.58 +$487.78
(+5.1%) 		RESISTANCE
1.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2024 9:05pm ET $56.78 194 $11,036.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2024 11:20pm ET $55.98 194 $10,881.08 $10,826.29 $-210.29
(-1.4%) 		RESISTANCE
2.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 2:20am ET $50.71 213 $10,826.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 3:35am ET $54.25 213 $11,582.05 $11,526.03 +$699.75
(+7.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2024 1:20pm ET $98.75 117 $11,526.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2024 3:55pm ET $97.71 117 $11,404.65 $11,347.32 $-178.71
(-1.1%) 		RESISTANCE
2.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 19, 2025 5:45pm ET $113.66 100 $11,347.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 19, 2025 7:20pm ET $115.73 100 $11,553.98 $11,496.73 +$149.41
(+1.8%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET $97.68 118 $11,496.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 8:55pm ET $92.73 118 $10,914.12 $10,858.09 $-638.63
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 9:00pm ET $90.00 121 $10,858.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 10:40pm ET $92.70 121 $11,183.84 $11,128.73 +$270.64
(+3.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 5:00pm ET $113.86 98 $11,128.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2025 7:00pm ET $115.16 98 $11,255.79 $11,199.83 +$71.10
(+1.1%) 		RESISTANCE
2h held
9 🟢 BUY May 7, 2025 6:55pm ET $90.13 124 $11,199.83 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2025 8:35pm ET $90.31 124 $11,222.20 $11,166.15 $-33.69
(+0.2%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
10 🟢 BUY May 12, 2025 2:05pm ET $101.53 110 $11,166.15 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2025 3:45pm ET $101.19 110 $11,128.75 $11,073.02 $-93.13
(-0.3%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
11 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 8:15pm ET $95.33 116 $11,073.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 10:20pm ET $99.36 116 $11,541.12 $11,484.58 +$411.57
(+4.2%) 		RESISTANCE
2.1h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $47.06 244 $11,484.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 8:20pm ET $50.42 244 $12,304.56 $12,245.09 +$760.51
(+7.1%) 		RESISTANCE
1.2h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,245.09
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,245.09
Total Return: +22.45%
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