Compendium › Penelope Swing › NIO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NIO
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 14 trades executed

+7.84%
2 Years Return
$10,916.37
Current Value
77%
Win Rate
$10,122.32
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 04:17:10

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Mar 31, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 46%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.8/35
Total Return
8.4/25
Win Rate
14.5/15
Profit Factor
2.5/15
Consistency
7.7/10
Raw Quality 38.8/100
× Confidence 0.46 = 17.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (46%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
86,332
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,122.32
Current Value
$10,916.37
Total P&L
$794.03
Max Drawdown
-5.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
13
Winners / Losers
10 / 3
Best Trade
+5.10%
Worst Trade
-5.51%
Avg Trade Return
+0.62%
Avg Hold Time
1.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$276,140.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$794.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$794.03
Gross Return
+7.84%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.84%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,122.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 15, 2024 9:40am ET $5.46 1,854 $10,120.62 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2024 11:45am ET $5.26 1,854 $9,742.77 $9,744.47 $-377.85
(-3.7%) 		RESISTANCE
2.1h held
2 🟢 BUY May 23, 2024 10:05am ET $4.79 2,034 $9,742.66 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2024 11:25am ET $4.80 2,034 $9,753.03 $9,754.85 +$10.37
(+0.1%) 		RESISTANCE
1.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 6, 2024 9:30am ET $4.77 2,045 $9,754.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2024 11:05am ET $4.89 2,045 $9,998.21 $9,998.61 +$243.76
(+2.5%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 5, 2024 9:30am ET $4.51 2,218 $9,998.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 5, 2024 11:10am ET $4.58 2,218 $10,147.35 $10,147.44 +$148.83
(+1.5%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $3.73 2,724 $10,146.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 11:05am ET $3.92 2,724 $10,664.46 $10,665.00 +$517.56
(+5.1%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 12, 2024 9:55am ET $5.15 2,072 $10,660.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 12, 2024 11:20am ET $5.21 2,072 $10,784.76 $10,789.32 +$124.32
(+1.2%) 		RESISTANCE
1.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 8, 2024 9:30am ET $6.21 1,737 $10,786.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 8, 2024 11:05am ET $6.32 1,737 $10,978.71 $10,981.26 +$191.94
(+1.8%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2024 10:30am ET $4.62 2,379 $10,979.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2024 11:40am ET $4.64 2,379 $11,030.95 $11,033.12 +$51.86
(+0.5%) 		RESISTANCE
1.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2025 9:30am ET $4.46 2,473 $11,029.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2025 11:05am ET $4.66 2,473 $11,524.18 $11,527.72 +$494.60
(+4.5%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 9:40am ET $3.43 3,362 $11,524.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 10:45am ET $3.24 3,362 $10,889.52 $10,892.30 $-635.42
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2025 10:15am ET $4.50 2,422 $10,890.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2025 11:35am ET $4.53 2,422 $10,975.29 $10,977.31 +$85.01
(+0.8%) 		RESISTANCE
1.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2025 9:30am ET $5.64 1,948 $10,976.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2025 11:05am ET $5.68 1,948 $11,064.64 $11,064.97 +$87.66
(+0.8%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 9:35am ET $5.08 2,179 $11,062.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 31, 2025 11:25am ET $5.01 2,179 $10,913.52 $10,916.37 $-148.61
(-1.3%) 		RESISTANCE
1.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,916.37
Net Profit/Loss: +$916.37
Total Return: +9.16%
Back to Penelope Swing