Compendium › Penelope Swing › RIVN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
RIVN
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 14 trades executed

+7.77%
2 Years Return
$10,580.72
Current Value
69%
Win Rate
$9,817.72
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:51:25

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Apr 14, 2026

14
Lifetime
Confidence: 46%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.6/35
Total Return
6.9/25
Win Rate
9.1/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 29.5/100
× Confidence 0.46 = 13.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (46%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
81,449
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,817.72
Current Value
$10,580.72
Total P&L
$763.00
Max Drawdown
-5.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
13
Winners / Losers
9 / 4
Best Trade
+5.72%
Worst Trade
-3.00%
Avg Trade Return
+0.60%
Avg Hold Time
1.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$258,420.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$763.00
Net P&L (after fees)
$763.00
Gross Return
+7.77%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.77%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $9,817.72 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 7, 2024 9:45am ET $10.34 949 $9,811.33 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2024 11:10am ET $10.50 949 $9,959.94 $9,966.33 +$148.61
(+1.5%) 		RESISTANCE
1.4h held
2 🟢 BUY May 15, 2024 9:45am ET $10.33 964 $9,958.02 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2024 11:20am ET $10.22 964 $9,855.16 $9,863.47 $-102.86
(-1.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 28, 2024 10:15am ET $13.82 713 $9,853.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 28, 2024 1:45pm ET $13.41 713 $9,557.77 $9,567.94 $-295.54
(-3.0%) 		RESISTANCE
3.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2024 10:30am ET $9.69 987 $9,563.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2024 12:10pm ET $9.59 987 $9,470.17 $9,474.17 $-93.76
(-1.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 15, 2024 9:35am ET $9.73 973 $9,468.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 15, 2024 11:55am ET $9.69 973 $9,428.37 $9,434.47 $-39.70
(-0.4%) 		RESISTANCE
2.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2025 10:00am ET $13.11 719 $9,422.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2025 11:35am ET $13.37 719 $9,613.03 $9,625.01 +$190.53
(+2.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 9:40am ET $12.01 801 $9,622.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2025 11:15am ET $12.06 801 $9,656.06 $9,658.97 +$33.96
(+0.3%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 10:45am ET $10.41 927 $9,650.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 11:10am ET $11.01 927 $10,201.64 $10,210.54 +$551.57
(+5.7%) 		RESISTANCE
24m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 11:25am ET $11.03 926 $10,209.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 1:10pm ET $11.07 926 $10,246.19 $10,247.58 +$37.04
(+0.4%) 		RESISTANCE
1.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Oct 2, 2025 9:30am ET $13.46 761 $10,243.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 2, 2025 11:10am ET $13.54 761 $10,300.14 $10,304.65 +$57.07
(+0.6%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
11 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 10:55am ET $16.52 623 $10,291.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 11:50am ET $16.54 623 $10,301.31 $10,314.00 +$9.35
(+0.1%) 		RESISTANCE
54m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 10:30am ET $16.46 626 $10,303.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 11:20am ET $16.67 626 $10,434.11 $10,444.14 +$130.15
(+1.3%) 		RESISTANCE
48m held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:35am ET $17.19 607 $10,431.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 11:25am ET $17.41 607 $10,567.87 $10,580.72 +$136.58
(+1.3%) 		RESISTANCE
48m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,580.72
Net Profit/Loss: +$580.72
Total Return: +5.81%
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