SMCI Penelope Swing's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 40 trades executed
+39.48%
2 Years Return
$9,935.69
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$7,123.33
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality
6.5/100
× Confidence 0.81
= 5.2
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
83,052
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$7,123.33
Current Value
$9,935.69
Total P&L
$2,812.37
Max Drawdown
-36.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
31
Winners / Losers
18 /
13
Best Trade
+29.38%
Worst Trade
-8.78%
Avg Trade Return
+1.26%
Avg Hold Time
2.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$545,541.57
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,812.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,812.37
Gross Return
+39.48%
Net Return (after fees)
+39.48%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $7,123.33 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2024 10:40am ET | $88.46 | 80 | $7,077.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2024 11:40am ET | $90.86 | 80 | $7,268.40 | $7,314.57 |
+$191.24 (+2.7%) |
RESISTANCE
1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 2, 2024 9:45am ET | $61.53 | 118 | $7,260.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 2, 2024 10:10am ET | $58.34 | 118 | $6,884.03 | $6,938.59 |
$-375.98 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2024 9:35am ET | $52.31 | 132 | $6,905.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2024 11:55am ET | $51.77 | 132 | $6,834.04 | $6,867.08 |
$-71.50 (-1.0%) |
RESISTANCE
2.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2024 9:35am ET | $51.73 | 132 | $6,827.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2024 10:40am ET | $55.59 | 132 | $7,338.28 | $7,377.39 |
+$510.31 (+7.5%) |
RESISTANCE
1.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2024 10:45am ET | $41.02 | 179 | $7,342.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2024 12:40pm ET | $40.76 | 179 | $7,296.22 | $7,331.39 |
$-46.00 (-0.6%) |
RESISTANCE
1.9h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2024 10:45am ET | $43.63 | 168 | $7,330.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2024 10:55am ET | $39.80 | 168 | $6,686.40 | $6,687.61 |
$-643.78 (-8.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2024 9:30am ET | $46.00 | 145 | $6,670.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2024 11:50am ET | $45.00 | 145 | $6,524.42 | $6,541.54 |
$-146.07 (-2.2%) |
RESISTANCE
2.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2024 9:30am ET | $33.18 | 197 | $6,536.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2024 2:05pm ET | $33.27 | 197 | $6,554.19 | $6,559.27 |
+$17.73 (+0.3%) |
RESISTANCE
4.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 1, 2024 9:50am ET | $26.78 | 244 | $6,534.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 1, 2024 12:35pm ET | $27.34 | 244 | $6,670.96 | $6,695.91 |
+$136.64 (+2.1%) |
RESISTANCE
2.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2024 9:40am ET | $20.94 | 319 | $6,679.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2024 11:15am ET | $21.23 | 319 | $6,773.65 | $6,789.73 |
+$93.82 (+1.4%) |
RESISTANCE
1.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 8, 2024 10:10am ET | $24.11 | 281 | $6,774.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 8, 2024 11:20am ET | $24.96 | 281 | $7,013.76 | $7,028.58 |
+$238.85 (+3.5%) |
RESISTANCE
1.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 9:35am ET | $18.15 | 387 | $7,022.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2024 11:05am ET | $18.88 | 387 | $7,306.56 | $7,312.85 |
+$284.27 (+4.0%) |
RESISTANCE
1.5h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2024 3:35pm ET | $21.19 | 345 | $7,308.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2024 9:45am ET | $27.41 | 345 | $9,456.48 | $9,460.51 |
+$2,147.66 (+29.4%) |
RESISTANCE
18.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2024 9:50am ET | $26.44 | 357 | $9,437.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2024 11:15am ET | $26.61 | 357 | $9,499.77 | $9,522.91 |
+$62.40 (+0.7%) |
RESISTANCE
1.4h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2024 10:10am ET | $34.97 | 272 | $9,511.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2024 11:50am ET | $35.17 | 272 | $9,566.24 | $9,577.31 |
+$54.40 (+0.6%) |
RESISTANCE
1.7h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 29, 2024 9:40am ET | $31.92 | 300 | $9,576.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 29, 2024 11:10am ET | $32.42 | 300 | $9,726.06 | $9,727.37 |
+$150.06 (+1.6%) |
RESISTANCE
1.5h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2024 10:35am ET | $42.04 | 231 | $9,711.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2024 1:00pm ET | $41.52 | 231 | $9,591.12 | $9,607.20 |
$-120.17 (-1.2%) |
RESISTANCE
2.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2024 9:35am ET | $40.92 | 234 | $9,575.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2024 12:25pm ET | $40.51 | 234 | $9,479.53 | $9,511.45 |
$-95.75 (-1.0%) |
RESISTANCE
2.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $29.98 | 317 | $9,503.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2025 11:25am ET | $30.92 | 317 | $9,801.26 | $9,809.05 |
+$297.60 (+3.1%) |
RESISTANCE
1.9h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 11:00am ET | $29.81 | 329 | $9,807.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 2:00pm ET | $28.71 | 329 | $9,445.59 | $9,447.61 |
$-361.44 (-3.7%) |
RESISTANCE
3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 9:40am ET | $26.52 | 356 | $9,441.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 11:05am ET | $27.33 | 356 | $9,727.70 | $9,733.55 |
+$285.94 (+3.0%) |
RESISTANCE
1.4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2025 9:50am ET | $55.97 | 173 | $9,682.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2025 11:30am ET | $57.69 | 173 | $9,980.37 | $10,031.11 |
+$297.56 (+3.1%) |
RESISTANCE
1.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $51.07 | 196 | $10,009.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2025 11:30am ET | $54.22 | 196 | $10,627.12 | $10,648.51 |
+$617.40 (+6.2%) |
RESISTANCE
1.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2025 9:35am ET | $47.11 | 226 | $10,646.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2025 11:15am ET | $46.45 | 226 | $10,496.57 | $10,498.22 |
$-150.29 (-1.4%) |
RESISTANCE
1.7h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2025 9:40am ET | $36.01 | 291 | $10,478.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2025 10:35am ET | $38.84 | 291 | $11,302.85 | $11,322.16 |
+$823.94 (+7.9%) |
RESISTANCE
54m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:35am ET | $32.16 | 352 | $11,320.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 11:40am ET | $32.28 | 352 | $11,361.75 | $11,363.59 |
+$41.43 (+0.4%) |
RESISTANCE
2.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2025 9:35am ET | $47.41 | 239 | $11,330.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2025 11:35am ET | $45.04 | 239 | $10,763.37 | $10,796.20 |
$-567.39 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 9:35am ET | $44.22 | 244 | $10,789.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 12:40pm ET | $43.23 | 244 | $10,548.12 | $10,554.64 |
$-241.56 (-2.2%) |
RESISTANCE
3.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $31.09 | 339 | $10,539.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $29.40 | 339 | $9,964.91 | $9,980.04 |
$-574.60 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
36m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.57 | 442 | $9,975.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $22.09 | 442 | $9,765.99 | $9,770.09 |
$-209.95 (-2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.51 | 368 | $9,755.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $26.96 | 368 | $9,921.28 | $9,935.69 |
+$165.60 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,935.69
Net Profit/Loss:
$-64.31
Total Return:
-0.64%