Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-20 11:30:25

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
50.5 neutral
20d Trend
+69.9%
5d Trend
-8.4%
EMA20 Dist
+0.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
31%
Bounce Ratio
1.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 8.1/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 7.6

30-Day Momentum

41
+7.3%
30d Return
86%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 52.2 Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+33 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
84,523
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-06-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
520 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,596.68
Current Value
$9,881.55
Total P&L
$284.89
Max Drawdown
-34.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
68
Winners / Losers
35 / 33
Best Trade
+13.74%
Worst Trade
-6.07%
Avg Trade Return
+0.14%
Avg Hold Time
3.4h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,117,944.66
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$284.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$284.89
Gross Return
+2.97%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.97%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOXL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 520 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $9,596.68 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2024 9:30am ET $57.78 166 $9,591.48
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2024 11:25am ET $57.19 166 $9,493.52 $9,498.72 $-97.96
(-1.0%)
RESISTANCE
1.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2024 10:10am ET $46.69 203 $9,478.07
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2024 1:15pm ET $44.97 203 $9,128.91 $9,149.56 $-349.16
(-3.7%)
RESISTANCE
3.1h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2024 11:00am ET $38.66 236 $9,123.76
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2024 1:25pm ET $38.18 236 $9,009.54 $9,035.34 $-114.22
(-1.2%)
RESISTANCE
2.4h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2024 10:20am ET $41.14 219 $9,009.66
🔴 SELL Aug 1, 2024 11:00am ET $38.80 219 $8,497.22 $8,522.90 $-512.44
(-5.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
42m held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2024 2:05pm ET $26.92 316 $8,505.14
🔴 SELL Aug 8, 2024 9:30am ET $28.30 316 $8,942.77 $8,960.53 +$437.63
(+5.2%)
RESISTANCE
19.4h held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2024 10:30am ET $33.36 268 $8,939.14
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2024 11:20am ET $34.75 268 $9,311.66 $9,333.05 +$372.52
(+4.2%)
RESISTANCE
48m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2024 9:35am ET $35.01 266 $9,311.33
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2024 10:35am ET $33.00 266 $8,778.00 $8,799.72 $-533.33
(-5.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 6, 2024 9:50am ET $27.50 319 $8,772.50
🔴 SELL Sep 6, 2024 10:50am ET $26.02 319 $8,299.65 $8,326.86 $-472.85
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held
9 🟢 BUY Oct 1, 2024 10:15am ET $33.67 247 $8,316.47
🔴 SELL Oct 1, 2024 11:45am ET $33.69 247 $8,321.41 $8,331.80 +$4.94
(+0.1%)
RESISTANCE
1.5h held
10 🟢 BUY Oct 15, 2024 10:30am ET $37.16 224 $8,323.84
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2024 12:50pm ET $35.30 224 $7,907.18 $7,915.14 $-416.66
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2024 9:30am ET $34.49 229 $7,898.19
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2024 11:05am ET $35.04 229 $8,023.02 $8,039.97 +$124.83
(+1.6%)
RESISTANCE
1.6h held
12 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2024 11:05am ET $30.30 265 $8,028.18
🔴 SELL Oct 31, 2024 12:20pm ET $29.82 265 $7,900.98 $7,912.77 $-127.20
(-1.6%)
RESISTANCE
1.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2024 9:50am ET $32.14 246 $7,905.92
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2024 12:45pm ET $32.01 246 $7,874.41 $7,881.26 $-31.51
(-0.4%)
RESISTANCE
2.9h held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2024 3:00pm ET $29.30 268 $7,852.37
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2024 3:35pm ET $27.52 268 $7,375.36 $7,404.24 $-477.01
(-6.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
36m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 10, 2025 10:05am ET $27.51 269 $7,400.19
🔴 SELL Jan 10, 2025 12:35pm ET $27.88 269 $7,499.69 $7,503.75 +$99.50
(+1.3%)
RESISTANCE
2.5h held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2025 9:35am ET $27.35 274 $7,493.90
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2025 11:25am ET $25.79 274 $7,066.46 $7,076.31 $-427.44
(-5.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $24.56 288 $7,073.28
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2025 11:05am ET $26.05 288 $7,502.40 $7,505.43 +$429.12
(+6.1%)
RESISTANCE
1.6h held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2025 10:15am ET $25.08 299 $7,498.92
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2025 11:45am ET $25.45 299 $7,609.55 $7,616.06 +$110.63
(+1.5%)
RESISTANCE
1.5h held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2025 10:00am ET $24.58 309 $7,595.19
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2025 12:25pm ET $24.60 309 $7,601.40 $7,622.27 +$6.21
(+0.1%)
RESISTANCE
2.4h held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2025 3:20pm ET $19.81 384 $7,607.04
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2025 11:35am ET $19.63 384 $7,537.92 $7,553.15 $-69.12
(-0.9%)
RESISTANCE
20.3h held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2025 9:30am ET $19.46 388 $7,548.54
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2025 11:05am ET $20.65 388 $8,012.16 $8,016.77 +$463.62
(+6.1%)
RESISTANCE
1.6h held
22 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $19.29 415 $8,005.35
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2025 12:30pm ET $18.74 415 $7,775.03 $7,786.44 $-230.33
(-2.9%)
RESISTANCE
3h held
23 🟢 BUY Mar 28, 2025 10:35am ET $16.65 467 $7,773.82
🔴 SELL Mar 28, 2025 1:05pm ET $15.76 467 $7,359.92 $7,372.54 $-413.90
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:40am ET $13.71 537 $7,361.68
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 10:40am ET $12.95 537 $6,954.15 $6,965.01 $-407.53
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 10:40am ET $8.76 795 $6,960.23
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 11:20am ET $9.79 795 $7,779.08 $7,783.86 +$818.85
(+11.8%)
RESISTANCE
42m held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 12:45pm ET $8.65 899 $7,776.35
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 1:15pm ET $9.16 899 $8,234.75 $8,242.26 +$458.40
(+5.9%)
RESISTANCE
30m held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 1:15pm ET $9.27 889 $8,241.03
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 2:55pm ET $8.75 889 $7,778.75 $7,779.98 $-462.28
(-5.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held
28 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 9:35am ET $10.73 725 $7,778.16
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 9:55am ET $10.12 725 $7,337.00 $7,338.82 $-441.16
(-5.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held
29 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2025 11:50am ET $10.17 721 $7,332.57
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2025 1:15pm ET $10.38 721 $7,485.21 $7,491.46 +$152.64
(+2.1%)
RESISTANCE
1.4h held
30 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2025 2:50pm ET $8.62 869 $7,489.65
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2025 3:45pm ET $9.05 869 $7,864.36 $7,866.17 +$374.71
(+5.0%)
RESISTANCE
54m held
31 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $8.67 907 $7,861.79
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2025 11:40am ET $8.21 907 $7,446.47 $7,450.85 $-415.32
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held
32 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2025 9:35am ET $10.96 679 $7,441.84
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2025 11:05am ET $11.46 679 $7,781.34 $7,790.35 +$339.50
(+4.6%)
RESISTANCE
1.5h held
33 🟢 BUY May 6, 2025 9:50am ET $12.12 642 $7,781.62
🔴 SELL May 6, 2025 11:05am ET $12.46 642 $7,996.11 $8,004.85 +$214.49
(+2.8%)
RESISTANCE
1.3h held
34 🟢 BUY May 23, 2025 9:40am ET $15.36 521 $7,999.96
🔴 SELL May 23, 2025 11:20am ET $15.36 521 $7,999.96 $8,004.85 $0.00
(+0.0%)
RESISTANCE
1.7h held
35 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2025 9:50am ET $24.93 321 $8,002.53
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2025 11:05am ET $25.05 321 $8,039.45 $8,041.76 +$36.92
(+0.5%)
RESISTANCE
1.3h held
36 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 9:30am ET $37.42 214 $8,006.94
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 11:25am ET $35.33 214 $7,560.60 $7,595.42 $-446.34
(-5.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held
37 🟢 BUY Oct 22, 2025 9:30am ET $37.06 204 $7,560.24
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2025 11:05am ET $37.86 204 $7,723.44 $7,758.62 +$163.20
(+2.2%)
RESISTANCE
1.6h held
38 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 9:35am ET $43.95 176 $7,734.32
🔴 SELL Nov 4, 2025 1:00pm ET $42.24 176 $7,434.24 $7,458.54 $-300.08
(-3.9%)
RESISTANCE
3.4h held
39 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET $39.89 186 $7,418.70
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 11:05am ET $41.86 186 $7,785.96 $7,825.80 +$367.26
(+5.0%)
RESISTANCE
1.6h held
40 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $39.22 199 $7,803.79
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 11:10am ET $38.96 199 $7,753.02 $7,775.03 $-50.76
(-0.7%)
RESISTANCE
1.7h held
41 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $32.16 241 $7,751.14
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 10:45am ET $30.47 241 $7,343.27 $7,367.17 $-407.87
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
42 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET $42.21 174 $7,344.49
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 11:05am ET $41.78 174 $7,269.74 $7,292.41 $-74.75
(-1.0%)
RESISTANCE
1.6h held
43 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 9:30am ET $35.77 203 $7,261.35
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 11:05am ET $37.20 203 $7,551.60 $7,582.66 +$290.25
(+4.0%)
RESISTANCE
1.6h held
44 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 9:45am ET $62.84 120 $7,540.80
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 11:35am ET $61.82 120 $7,418.40 $7,460.26 $-122.40
(-1.6%)
RESISTANCE
1.8h held
45 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET $61.43 121 $7,432.93
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:30pm ET $58.31 121 $7,055.51 $7,082.84 $-377.42
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held
46 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $50.61 139 $7,034.79
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:30am ET $53.97 139 $7,501.83 $7,549.88 +$467.04
(+6.6%)
RESISTANCE
1.3h held
47 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET $63.62 118 $7,506.57
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 12:25pm ET $67.86 118 $8,006.89 $8,050.20 +$500.32
(+6.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held
48 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 10:00am ET $65.39 123 $8,042.97
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 10:05am ET $65.43 123 $8,048.50 $8,055.73 +$5.53
(+0.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
49 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $54.90 146 $8,015.40
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET $53.77 146 $7,850.41 $7,890.74 $-164.99
(-2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
50 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $50.44 156 $7,868.64
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET $47.62 156 $7,427.94 $7,450.04 $-440.70
(-5.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held
51 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 9:50am ET $51.00 146 $7,445.99
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 3:05pm ET $55.37 146 $8,084.02 $8,088.07 +$638.03
(+8.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
52 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $48.84 165 $8,058.60
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 3:05pm ET $55.55 165 $9,165.75 $9,195.22 +$1,107.15
(+13.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.6h held
53 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 10:45am ET $52.22 176 $9,191.60
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 10:50am ET $51.72 176 $9,102.72 $9,106.34 $-88.88
(-1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
54 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:55am ET $43.76 208 $9,102.08
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 10:00am ET $43.75 208 $9,100.00 $9,104.26 $-2.08
(-0.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
55 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $47.12 193 $9,094.16
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET $46.97 193 $9,065.21 $9,075.31 $-28.95
(-0.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
56 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:30am ET $119.17 76 $9,056.92
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:35am ET $120.27 76 $9,140.28 $9,158.67 +$83.36
(+0.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
57 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 10:35am ET $107.82 84 $9,056.46
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET $106.09 84 $8,911.56 $9,013.77 $-144.90
(-1.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
58 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $173.53 51 $8,850.03
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 9:35am ET $174.87 51 $8,918.37 $9,082.11 +$68.34
(+0.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
59 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $165.77 54 $8,951.58
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $166.11 54 $8,969.94 $9,100.47 +$18.36
(+0.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
60 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:50am ET $158.00 57 $9,006.00
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:55am ET $161.90 57 $9,228.31 $9,322.78 +$222.31
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
61 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:10am ET $138.54 67 $9,282.18
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 10:15am ET $136.84 67 $9,168.28 $9,208.88 $-113.90
(-1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
62 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:45am ET $217.37 42 $9,129.54
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:50am ET $217.49 42 $9,134.58 $9,213.92 +$5.04
(+0.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
63 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $259.11 35 $9,068.85
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:25am ET $282.77 35 $9,896.95 $10,042.02 +$828.10
(+9.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
40m held
64 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $228.50 43 $9,825.50
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET $215.52 43 $9,267.30 $9,483.82 $-558.20
(-5.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held
65 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:20am ET $211.17 44 $9,291.48
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:25am ET $217.07 44 $9,551.08 $9,743.42 +$259.60
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
66 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:00am ET $190.67 51 $9,724.17
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 11:05am ET $191.85 51 $9,784.35 $9,803.60 +$60.18
(+0.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
67 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 11:00am ET $252.87 38 $9,609.06
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 11:05am ET $252.99 38 $9,613.62 $9,808.16 +$4.56
(+0.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
68 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $236.17 41 $9,682.97
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:45pm ET $237.96 41 $9,756.36 $9,881.55 +$73.39
(+0.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,881.55
Net Profit/Loss: $-118.45
Total Return: -1.18%
Back to Penelope Swing