Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:23:21

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 11.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.8

30-Day Momentum

17
-0.1%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.9 Conf: 0.90×
Steady (+5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,898
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
122 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$8,783.56
Current Value
$9,305.01
Period P&L
$521.39
Max Drawdown
-25.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
68
Winners / Losers
43 / 25
Best Trade
+2.50%
Worst Trade
-2.74%
Avg Trade Return
+0.09%
Avg Hold Time
6.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,221,132.94
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$521.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$521.39
Gross Return
+5.94%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.94%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 122 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 68 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $8,783.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 1:20pm ET $438.55 20 $8,770.90
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 2:20pm ET $438.29 20 $8,765.80 $8,778.51 $-5.10
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 3:50pm ET $452.91 19 $8,605.29
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $451.69 19 $8,582.11 $8,755.33 $-23.18
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 1:50pm ET $435.51 20 $8,710.20
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 2:30pm ET $436.49 20 $8,729.80 $8,774.94 +$19.60
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET $433.23 20 $8,664.60
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 9:50am ET $436.91 20 $8,738.20 $8,848.54 +$73.60
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 3:45pm ET $449.38 19 $8,538.22
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET $450.42 19 $8,557.98 $8,868.30 +$19.76
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 3:20pm ET $435.32 20 $8,706.30
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 3:30pm ET $436.58 20 $8,731.57 $8,893.56 +$25.27
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 12:55pm ET $438.12 20 $8,762.49
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 1:05pm ET $439.39 20 $8,787.80 $8,918.88 +$25.31
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 1:40pm ET $423.37 21 $8,890.77
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET $422.41 21 $8,870.61 $8,898.72 $-20.16
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET $445.30 19 $8,460.70
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 9:50am ET $448.75 19 $8,526.25 $8,964.27 +$65.55
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 12:55pm ET $438.16 20 $8,763.27
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 2:15pm ET $438.45 20 $8,769.00 $8,970.00 +$5.73
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 2:25pm ET $432.89 20 $8,657.70
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 2:50pm ET $435.03 20 $8,700.60 $9,012.90 +$42.90
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 3:25pm ET $415.51 21 $8,725.71
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET $425.89 21 $8,943.74 $9,230.93 +$218.03
(+2.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.1h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $415.36 22 $9,137.92
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:50am ET $421.79 22 $9,279.38 $9,372.39 +$141.46
(+1.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 12:15pm ET $421.51 22 $9,273.22
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 2:40pm ET $417.04 22 $9,174.77 $9,273.94 $-98.45
(-1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $398.43 23 $9,163.89
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:15am ET $393.34 23 $9,046.82 $9,156.87 $-117.07
(-1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:55pm ET $411.34 22 $9,049.48
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 2:15pm ET $412.68 22 $9,079.07 $9,186.46 +$29.59
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 3:45pm ET $419.29 21 $8,805.09
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:50pm ET $418.25 21 $8,783.25 $9,164.62 $-21.84
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $412.86 22 $9,082.92
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 11:05am ET $405.30 22 $8,916.60 $8,998.30 $-166.32
(-1.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 2:40pm ET $410.86 21 $8,628.08
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $411.90 21 $8,649.90 $9,020.12 +$21.82
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET $407.32 22 $8,961.04
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 10:25am ET $410.08 22 $9,021.65 $9,080.73 +$60.61
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 11:10am ET $399.17 22 $8,781.74
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 2:55pm ET $395.22 22 $8,694.84 $8,993.83 $-86.90
(-1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8h held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 3:35pm ET $415.30 21 $8,721.20
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 3:50pm ET $416.83 21 $8,753.43 $9,026.06 +$32.23
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET $402.38 22 $8,852.36
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 10:30am ET $406.63 22 $8,945.86 $9,119.56 +$93.50
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
24 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 3:15pm ET $399.07 22 $8,779.54
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 3:50pm ET $402.11 22 $8,846.31 $9,186.33 +$66.77
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
25 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET $400.45 22 $8,809.90
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 9:55am ET $406.44 22 $8,941.68 $9,318.11 +$131.78
(+1.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
26 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET $397.30 23 $9,137.90
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $390.44 23 $8,980.12 $9,160.33 $-157.78
(-1.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
27 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET $399.10 22 $8,780.20
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 3:15pm ET $400.96 22 $8,821.16 $9,201.29 +$40.96
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
28 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 9:55am ET $401.57 22 $8,834.48
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 11:40am ET $398.48 22 $8,766.56 $9,133.37 $-67.92
(-0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
29 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET $392.76 23 $9,033.48
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $395.80 23 $9,103.40 $9,203.29 +$69.92
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
30 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 12:35pm ET $396.78 23 $9,125.94
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 1:35pm ET $397.56 23 $9,143.91 $9,221.26 +$17.97
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
31 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 2:50pm ET $379.07 24 $9,097.68
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 3:00pm ET $381.33 24 $9,151.92 $9,275.50 +$54.24
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
32 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:45am ET $380.98 24 $9,143.52
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 1:35pm ET $379.83 24 $9,115.80 $9,247.78 $-27.72
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
33 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET $390.40 23 $8,979.20
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 1:35pm ET $389.02 23 $8,947.46 $9,216.04 $-31.74
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
34 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET $375.61 24 $9,014.74
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $368.52 24 $8,844.60 $9,045.90 $-170.14
(-1.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.7h held
35 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET $353.20 25 $8,830.00
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $355.35 25 $8,883.75 $9,099.65 +$53.75
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
36 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $379.68 23 $8,732.75
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 3:05pm ET $380.24 23 $8,745.52 $9,112.41 +$12.76
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
37 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET $348.85 26 $9,069.97
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET $348.58 26 $9,062.95 $9,105.39 $-7.02
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
38 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET $340.72 26 $8,858.72
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET $343.85 26 $8,940.10 $9,186.77 +$81.38
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
39 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:40am ET $344.43 26 $8,955.18
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 1:15pm ET $344.22 26 $8,949.72 $9,181.31 $-5.46
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
40 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET $362.70 25 $9,067.50
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET $364.92 25 $9,123.12 $9,236.93 +$55.62
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
41 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:35am ET $386.14 23 $8,881.22
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:05am ET $386.32 23 $8,885.36 $9,241.07 +$4.14
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
42 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:20pm ET $403.40 22 $8,874.80
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 2:45pm ET $401.98 22 $8,843.56 $9,209.83 $-31.24
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
43 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 3:05pm ET $391.09 23 $8,995.18
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 3:30pm ET $392.22 23 $9,021.06 $9,235.71 +$25.88
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
44 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 3:45pm ET $386.32 23 $8,885.25
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 9:40am ET $388.80 23 $8,942.40 $9,292.86 +$57.15
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held
45 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:45am ET $378.56 24 $9,085.44
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET $376.57 24 $9,037.56 $9,244.98 $-47.88
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
46 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $371.13 24 $8,907.12
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET $368.35 24 $8,840.40 $9,178.26 $-66.72
(-0.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
47 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET $376.29 24 $9,030.96
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:00am ET $378.99 24 $9,095.76 $9,243.06 +$64.80
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
48 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET $370.28 24 $8,886.72
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 12:45pm ET $372.12 24 $8,930.88 $9,287.22 +$44.16
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
49 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 3:35pm ET $392.85 23 $9,035.55
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 10:00am ET $393.55 23 $9,051.65 $9,303.32 +$16.10
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
50 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 12:25pm ET $390.75 23 $8,987.25
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 1:30pm ET $392.12 23 $9,018.76 $9,334.83 +$31.51
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
51 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $406.46 22 $8,942.06
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 12:45pm ET $408.69 22 $8,991.18 $9,383.94 +$49.11
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
52 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $422.48 22 $9,294.56
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 10:55am ET $422.13 22 $9,286.86 $9,376.24 $-7.70
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
53 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 12:45pm ET $422.83 22 $9,302.37
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 1:15pm ET $426.05 22 $9,373.10 $9,446.97 +$70.73
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
54 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 1:10pm ET $445.35 21 $9,352.25
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 1:55pm ET $446.83 21 $9,383.43 $9,478.15 +$31.18
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
55 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $422.20 22 $9,288.40
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $418.82 22 $9,214.04 $9,403.79 $-74.36
(-0.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
56 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:30am ET $402.28 23 $9,252.44
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 11:15am ET $397.97 23 $9,153.31 $9,304.66 $-99.13
(-1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
57 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 2:50pm ET $419.28 22 $9,224.16
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 3:40pm ET $419.71 22 $9,233.62 $9,314.12 +$9.46
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
58 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $438.73 21 $9,213.33
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:00am ET $440.89 21 $9,258.59 $9,359.37 +$45.25
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
59 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 10:10am ET $434.09 21 $9,115.89
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:15am ET $433.80 21 $9,109.70 $9,353.18 $-6.19
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
60 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 3:35pm ET $416.86 22 $9,170.92
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $418.27 22 $9,201.94 $9,384.20 +$31.02
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held
61 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $418.74 22 $9,212.28
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET $422.20 22 $9,288.40 $9,460.32 +$76.12
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
62 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 10:00am ET $420.71 22 $9,255.72
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 10:10am ET $425.11 22 $9,352.31 $9,556.91 +$96.59
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
63 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 12:40pm ET $397.02 24 $9,528.36
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:40pm ET $391.86 24 $9,404.64 $9,433.19 $-123.72
(-1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held
64 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $401.68 23 $9,238.64
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 1:15pm ET $390.68 23 $8,985.64 $9,180.19 $-253.00
(-2.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held
65 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 3:20pm ET $380.28 24 $9,126.72
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $382.89 24 $9,189.24 $9,242.71 +$62.52
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
66 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 11:50am ET $390.56 23 $8,982.88
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 12:30pm ET $394.92 23 $9,083.16 $9,342.99 +$100.28
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
67 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 3:50pm ET $408.17 22 $8,979.74
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $410.04 22 $9,020.88 $9,384.13 +$41.14
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
68 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $403.99 23 $9,291.77
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET $400.55 23 $9,212.65 $9,305.01 $-79.12
(-0.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,305.01
Net Profit/Loss: $-694.99
Total Return: -6.95%
Back to Professor Mean