TSLA Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 50 trades in period
+6.28%
Year to Date Return
$9,334.83
Current Value
64%
Win Rate
$8,783.56
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
12.0/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 11.8
30-Day Momentum
38
+2.1%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 39.8
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+26 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,480
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$8,783.56
Current Value
$9,334.83
Period P&L
$551.21
Max Drawdown
-25.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
32 /
18
Best Trade
+2.50%
Worst Trade
-1.89%
Avg Trade Return
+0.13%
Avg Hold Time
6.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$889,617.77
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$551.21
Net P&L (after fees)
$551.21
Gross Return
+6.28%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.28%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $8,783.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 1:20pm ET | $438.55 | 20 | $8,770.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 2:20pm ET | $438.29 | 20 | $8,765.80 | $8,778.51 |
$-5.10 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $452.91 | 19 | $8,605.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $451.69 | 19 | $8,582.11 | $8,755.33 |
$-23.18 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:50pm ET | $435.51 | 20 | $8,710.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $436.49 | 20 | $8,729.80 | $8,774.94 |
+$19.60 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $433.23 | 20 | $8,664.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $436.91 | 20 | $8,738.20 | $8,848.54 |
+$73.60 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 3:45pm ET | $449.38 | 19 | $8,538.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $450.42 | 19 | $8,557.98 | $8,868.30 |
+$19.76 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:20pm ET | $435.32 | 20 | $8,706.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:30pm ET | $436.58 | 20 | $8,731.57 | $8,893.56 |
+$25.27 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 12:55pm ET | $438.12 | 20 | $8,762.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 1:05pm ET | $439.39 | 20 | $8,787.80 | $8,918.88 |
+$25.31 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:40pm ET | $423.37 | 21 | $8,890.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $422.41 | 21 | $8,870.61 | $8,898.72 |
$-20.16 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $445.30 | 19 | $8,460.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $448.75 | 19 | $8,526.25 | $8,964.27 |
+$65.55 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 12:55pm ET | $438.16 | 20 | $8,763.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 2:15pm ET | $438.45 | 20 | $8,769.00 | $8,970.00 |
+$5.73 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 2:25pm ET | $432.89 | 20 | $8,657.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:50pm ET | $435.03 | 20 | $8,700.60 | $9,012.90 |
+$42.90 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 3:25pm ET | $415.51 | 21 | $8,725.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $425.89 | 21 | $8,943.74 | $9,230.93 |
+$218.03 (+2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $415.36 | 22 | $9,137.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $421.79 | 22 | $9,279.38 | $9,372.39 |
+$141.46 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:15pm ET | $421.51 | 22 | $9,273.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:40pm ET | $417.04 | 22 | $9,174.77 | $9,273.94 |
$-98.45 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $398.43 | 23 | $9,163.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $393.34 | 23 | $9,046.82 | $9,156.87 |
$-117.07 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:55pm ET | $411.34 | 22 | $9,049.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $412.68 | 22 | $9,079.07 | $9,186.46 |
+$29.59 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:45pm ET | $419.29 | 21 | $8,805.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $418.25 | 21 | $8,783.25 | $9,164.62 |
$-21.84 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $412.86 | 22 | $9,082.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $405.30 | 22 | $8,916.60 | $8,998.30 |
$-166.32 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 2:40pm ET | $410.86 | 21 | $8,628.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $411.90 | 21 | $8,649.90 | $9,020.12 |
+$21.82 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $407.32 | 22 | $8,961.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:25am ET | $410.08 | 22 | $9,021.65 | $9,080.73 |
+$60.61 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 11:10am ET | $399.17 | 22 | $8,781.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 2:55pm ET | $395.22 | 22 | $8,694.84 | $8,993.83 |
$-86.90 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:35pm ET | $415.30 | 21 | $8,721.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:50pm ET | $416.83 | 21 | $8,753.43 | $9,026.06 |
+$32.23 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $402.38 | 22 | $8,852.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $406.63 | 22 | $8,945.86 | $9,119.56 |
+$93.50 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 3:15pm ET | $399.07 | 22 | $8,779.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 3:50pm ET | $402.11 | 22 | $8,846.31 | $9,186.33 |
+$66.77 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.45 | 22 | $8,809.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $406.44 | 22 | $8,941.68 | $9,318.11 |
+$131.78 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET | $397.30 | 23 | $9,137.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $390.44 | 23 | $8,980.12 | $9,160.33 |
$-157.78 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $399.10 | 22 | $8,780.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $400.96 | 22 | $8,821.16 | $9,201.29 |
+$40.96 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $401.57 | 22 | $8,834.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:40am ET | $398.48 | 22 | $8,766.56 | $9,133.37 |
$-67.92 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $392.76 | 23 | $9,033.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $395.80 | 23 | $9,103.40 | $9,203.29 |
+$69.92 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 12:35pm ET | $396.78 | 23 | $9,125.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 1:35pm ET | $397.56 | 23 | $9,143.91 | $9,221.26 |
+$17.97 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 2:50pm ET | $379.07 | 24 | $9,097.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 3:00pm ET | $381.33 | 24 | $9,151.92 | $9,275.50 |
+$54.24 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $380.98 | 24 | $9,143.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:35pm ET | $379.83 | 24 | $9,115.80 | $9,247.78 |
$-27.72 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $390.40 | 23 | $8,979.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:35pm ET | $389.02 | 23 | $8,947.46 | $9,216.04 |
$-31.74 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $375.61 | 24 | $9,014.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.52 | 24 | $8,844.60 | $9,045.90 |
$-170.14 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $353.20 | 25 | $8,830.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $355.35 | 25 | $8,883.75 | $9,099.65 |
+$53.75 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $379.68 | 23 | $8,732.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:05pm ET | $380.24 | 23 | $8,745.52 | $9,112.41 |
+$12.76 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $348.85 | 26 | $9,069.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $348.58 | 26 | $9,062.95 | $9,105.39 |
$-7.02 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET | $340.72 | 26 | $8,858.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $343.85 | 26 | $8,940.10 | $9,186.77 |
+$81.38 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $344.43 | 26 | $8,955.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 1:15pm ET | $344.22 | 26 | $8,949.72 | $9,181.31 |
$-5.46 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $362.70 | 25 | $9,067.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $364.92 | 25 | $9,123.12 | $9,236.93 |
+$55.62 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $386.14 | 23 | $8,881.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:05am ET | $386.32 | 23 | $8,885.36 | $9,241.07 |
+$4.14 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $403.40 | 22 | $8,874.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $401.98 | 22 | $8,843.56 | $9,209.83 |
$-31.24 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 3:05pm ET | $391.09 | 23 | $8,995.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 3:30pm ET | $392.22 | 23 | $9,021.06 | $9,235.71 |
+$25.88 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 3:45pm ET | $386.32 | 23 | $8,885.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $388.80 | 23 | $8,942.40 | $9,292.86 |
+$57.15 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $378.56 | 24 | $9,085.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $376.57 | 24 | $9,037.56 | $9,244.98 |
$-47.88 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $371.13 | 24 | $8,907.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $368.35 | 24 | $8,840.40 | $9,178.26 |
$-66.72 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $376.29 | 24 | $9,030.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $378.99 | 24 | $9,095.76 | $9,243.06 |
+$64.80 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $370.28 | 24 | $8,886.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 12:45pm ET | $372.12 | 24 | $8,930.88 | $9,287.22 |
+$44.16 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:35pm ET | $392.85 | 23 | $9,035.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $393.55 | 23 | $9,051.65 | $9,303.32 |
+$16.10 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $390.75 | 23 | $8,987.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:30pm ET | $392.12 | 23 | $9,018.76 | $9,334.83 |
+$31.51 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,334.83
Net Profit/Loss:
$-665.17
Total Return:
-6.65%