Compendium › Rex Freefall › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Rex Freefall's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 6 trades in period

+2.48%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,037.54
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,770.85
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 06:32:57

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 71%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.3/35
Total Return
8.8/25
Win Rate
13.1/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 39.0/100
× Confidence 0.71 = 27.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (71%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,105
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
136 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,770.85
Current Value
$11,037.54
Period P&L
$266.70
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.17

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
4 / 2
Best Trade
+2.69%
Worst Trade
-3.22%
Avg Trade Return
+0.45%
Avg Hold Time
20.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$130,847.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$266.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$266.70
Gross Return
+2.48%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.48%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 136 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rex Freefall had $10,770.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET $289.70 37 $10,718.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $295.62 37 $10,937.94 $10,989.89 +$219.04
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 12:40pm ET $290.28 37 $10,740.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $298.10 37 $11,029.80 $11,279.34 +$289.45
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:15am ET $283.70 39 $11,064.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 1:30pm ET $274.79 39 $10,716.81 $10,931.94 $-347.39
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 1:30pm ET $259.04 42 $10,879.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 12:30pm ET $264.60 42 $11,113.20 $11,165.46 +$233.52
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 2:05pm ET $232.51 48 $11,160.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 3:15pm ET $225.03 48 $10,801.44 $10,806.42 $-359.04
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:40am ET $223.48 48 $10,726.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 10:25am ET $228.29 48 $10,957.92 $11,037.54 +$231.12
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
45m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,037.54
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,037.54
Total Return: +10.38%
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