Compendium › Reversion › ADBE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ADBE
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-22 to present • 4 trades in period

-20.77%
Last Month Return
$6,362.41
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$8,029.86
Period Start
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PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:54:13

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 10.3/100
× Confidence 0.89 = 9.1

30-Day Momentum

1
-21.7%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,547
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,029.86
Current Value
$6,362.41
Period P&L
$-1,667.45
Max Drawdown
-11.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.86

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+5.12%
Worst Trade
-13.00%
Avg Trade Return
-5.72%
Avg Hold Time
5.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$60,693.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,667.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,667.45
Gross Return
-20.77%
Net Return (after fees)
-20.77%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $8,029.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 9:30am ET $250.27 32 $8,008.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $263.09 32 $8,418.88 $8,533.38 +$410.08
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $264.17 32 $8,453.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:45am ET $245.20 32 $7,846.40 $7,926.50 $-606.88
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET $232.65 34 $7,909.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $202.40 34 $6,881.60 $6,898.17 $-1,028.33
(-13.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $207.74 33 $6,855.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:35am ET $191.50 33 $6,319.50 $6,362.41 $-535.76
(-7.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,362.41
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,637.59
Total Return: -36.38%
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