Compendium › Reversion › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-22 to present • 4 trades in period

+2.55%
Last Month Return
$10,483.83
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,222.76
Period Start
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PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:57:54

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.8/35
Total Return
6.4/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 19.3/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 18.7

30-Day Momentum

9
+1.4%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,548
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,222.76
Current Value
$10,483.83
Period P&L
$261.07
Max Drawdown
-22.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+5.09%
Worst Trade
-7.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.48%
Avg Hold Time
5.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$82,365.50
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$261.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$261.07
Gross Return
+2.55%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.55%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,222.76 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $78.11 132 $10,311.18 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $77.21 132 $10,191.72 $10,224.08 $-119.46
(-1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12.7d held
2 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $77.61 131 $10,167.56 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:15am ET $81.54 131 $10,681.74 $10,738.26 +$514.18
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $80.59 133 $10,718.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:40pm ET $74.88 133 $9,959.04 $9,978.83 $-759.43
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $75.69 131 $9,915.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 11:10am ET $79.54 131 $10,420.39 $10,483.83 +$505.00
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,483.83
Net Profit/Loss: +$483.83
Total Return: +4.84%
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