Compendium › Reversion › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 4 trades in period

+12.58%
Last Month Return
$9,917.84
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$8,809.30
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:16:00

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 11.7/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 11.3

30-Day Momentum

48
+13.8%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
2.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 72.9 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+37 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,809.30
Current Value
$9,917.84
Period P&L
$1,108.54
Max Drawdown
-22.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.81

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+6.20%
Worst Trade
-3.83%
Avg Trade Return
+3.40%
Avg Hold Time
5.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$77,159.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,108.54
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,108.54
Gross Return
+12.58%
Net Return (after fees)
+12.58%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $8,809.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $68.67 126 $8,651.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $72.92 126 $9,188.07 $9,247.93 +$536.28
(+6.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $69.38 133 $9,227.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $73.53 133 $9,779.49 $9,799.88 +$551.95
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $76.45 128 $9,785.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:50am ET $80.46 128 $10,298.24 $10,312.52 +$512.64
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:55am ET $78.12 132 $10,311.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 10:55am ET $75.13 132 $9,917.16 $9,917.84 $-394.68
(-3.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,917.84
Net Profit/Loss: $-82.16
Total Return: -0.82%
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