Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 00:22:37

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 13.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 13.3

30-Day Momentum

2
-6.6%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,374.86
Current Value
$8,976.54
Period P&L
$-398.32
Max Drawdown
-28.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
2 / 3
Best Trade
+9.09%
Worst Trade
-7.19%
Avg Trade Return
-1.13%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$88,924.84
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-398.32
Net P&L (after fees)
$-398.32
Gross Return
-4.25%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.25%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,374.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:45am ET $196.61 48 $9,437.28
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $185.66 48 $8,911.78 $9,080.96 $-525.50
(-5.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $178.35 50 $8,917.50
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:10am ET $187.32 50 $9,366.00 $9,529.46 +$448.50
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $176.94 53 $9,377.82
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 12:20pm ET $164.50 53 $8,718.50 $8,870.14 $-659.32
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $164.17 54 $8,865.18
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 10:20am ET $152.37 54 $8,227.98 $8,232.94 $-637.20
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $157.30 52 $8,179.60
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $171.60 52 $8,923.20 $8,976.54 +$743.60
(+9.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,976.54
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,023.46
Total Return: -10.23%
Back to Reversion