Compendium › Reversion › COP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
COP
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-22 to present • 3 trades in period

-7.41%
Last Month Return
$9,167.79
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$9,901.77
Period Start
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PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:55:15

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
58.1 neutral
20d Trend
+7.6%
5d Trend
-0.6%
EMA20 Dist
+2.4%
ATR%
2.9%
Range Pos
80%
Bounce Ratio
3.0×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 11.4/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 9.6

30-Day Momentum

0
-7.2%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,548
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,901.77
Current Value
$9,167.79
Period P&L
$-733.98
Max Drawdown
-10.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.53

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+3.72%
Worst Trade
-7.13%
Avg Trade Return
-2.41%
Avg Hold Time
9.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$57,318.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-733.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$-733.98
Gross Return
-7.41%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.41%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,901.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:35am ET $120.74 81 $9,779.54 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:35am ET $116.12 81 $9,405.80 $9,511.03 $-373.73
(-3.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:35am ET $114.22 83 $9,480.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:35am ET $118.47 83 $9,833.01 $9,863.37 +$352.34
(+3.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET $117.56 83 $9,757.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET $109.18 83 $9,061.90 $9,167.79 $-695.58
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,167.79
Net Profit/Loss: $-832.21
Total Return: -8.32%
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