Compendium › Reversion › DKNG
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DKNG
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-22 to present • 4 trades in period

-3.13%
Last Month Return
$9,411.54
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$9,715.60
Period Start
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PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:58:01

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.5 oversold
20d Trend
-25.9%
5d Trend
-7.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
5.3%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 12.6/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 12.5

30-Day Momentum

3
-3.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,548
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,715.60
Current Value
$9,411.54
Period P&L
$-304.06
Max Drawdown
-28.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+5.94%
Worst Trade
-7.09%
Avg Trade Return
-0.58%
Avg Hold Time
5.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$76,425.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-304.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$-304.06
Gross Return
-3.13%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DKNG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,715.60 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 11:55am ET $25.65 378 $9,695.70 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 3:50pm ET $23.83 378 $9,009.63 $9,029.53 $-686.07
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
2 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $24.68 365 $9,008.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:45am ET $26.14 365 $9,541.10 $9,562.43 +$532.90
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 1:30pm ET $25.50 374 $9,538.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 9:40am ET $27.02 374 $10,105.48 $10,129.04 +$566.61
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 3:25pm ET $28.92 350 $10,122.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:05pm ET $26.87 350 $9,404.50 $9,411.54 $-717.50
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,411.54
Net Profit/Loss: $-588.46
Total Return: -5.88%
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