Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:55:14

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.3 oversold
20d Trend
-41.6%
5d Trend
-28.6%
EMA20 Dist
-26.6%
ATR%
7.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 11.6/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.5

30-Day Momentum

2
-6.4%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,548
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$7,150.55
Current Value
$6,717.44
Period P&L
$-433.11
Max Drawdown
-28.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.21

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
2 / 3
Best Trade
+5.32%
Worst Trade
-7.62%
Avg Trade Return
-1.17%
Avg Hold Time
3.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$65,433.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-433.11
Net P&L (after fees)
$-433.11
Gross Return
-6.06%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.06%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HOOD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $7,150.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $75.97 94 $7,140.90
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $74.73 94 $7,024.62 $7,063.13 $-116.28
(-1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 2:50pm ET $92.13 76 $7,001.88
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $85.11 76 $6,468.36 $6,529.61 $-533.52
(-7.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $86.17 75 $6,462.75
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:00pm ET $80.06 75 $6,004.50 $6,071.36 $-458.25
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:15am ET $87.11 69 $6,010.59
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 2:00pm ET $91.59 69 $6,319.71 $6,380.48 +$309.12
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 2:55pm ET $98.93 64 $6,331.84
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 10:55am ET $104.20 64 $6,668.80 $6,717.44 +$336.96
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,717.44
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,282.56
Total Return: -32.83%
Back to Reversion