Compendium › Reversion › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-20 to present • 4 trades in period

-3.64%
Last Month Return
$8,499.95
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$8,820.70
Period Start
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PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-20 15:38:10

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 82%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 9.6/100
× Confidence 0.82 = 7.8

30-Day Momentum

3
-4.2%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (82%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,638
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
21 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,820.70
Current Value
$8,499.95
Period P&L
$-320.76
Max Drawdown
-5.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+6.02%
Worst Trade
-7.89%
Avg Trade Return
-0.88%
Avg Hold Time
5.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$72,745.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-320.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$-320.76
Gross Return
-3.64%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.64%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 21 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $8,820.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:40am ET $218.57 40 $8,742.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $231.72 40 $9,268.80 $9,400.31 +$526.00
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
2 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 3:00pm ET $254.40 36 $9,158.58 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:20am ET $268.36 36 $9,661.14 $9,902.87 +$502.56
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 2:15pm ET $319.97 30 $9,599.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $294.71 30 $8,841.30 $9,145.07 $-757.80
(-7.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:30am ET $283.10 32 $9,059.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:35pm ET $262.94 32 $8,414.08 $8,499.95 $-645.12
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,499.95
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,500.05
Total Return: -15.00%
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