Compendium › Reversion › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-4.66%
Last Month Return
$9,245.03
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$9,697.38
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:30:30

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 80%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 10.7/100
× Confidence 0.80 = 8.6

30-Day Momentum

3
-1.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (80%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,697.38
Current Value
$9,245.03
Period P&L
$-452.36
Max Drawdown
-5.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+5.84%
Worst Trade
-7.65%
Avg Trade Return
-0.16%
Avg Hold Time
7.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$74,203.76
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-452.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$-452.36
Gross Return
-4.66%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.66%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,697.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:55pm ET $238.13 39 $9,286.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 12:55pm ET $236.48 39 $9,222.72 $9,286.71 $-64.16
(-0.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 2:10pm ET $231.16 40 $9,246.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET $244.66 40 $9,786.40 $9,826.71 +$540.00
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:30pm ET $249.95 39 $9,747.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $230.82 39 $9,001.98 $9,080.84 $-745.88
(-7.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET $227.53 39 $8,873.67 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:40am ET $231.74 39 $9,037.86 $9,245.03 +$164.19
(+1.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,245.03
Net Profit/Loss: $-754.97
Total Return: -7.55%
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