Compendium › Reversion › MRK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRK
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-2.83%
Last Month Return
$11,723.63
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$12,065.08
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:04:26

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 78%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.1/35
Total Return
10.5/25
Win Rate
12.4/15
Profit Factor
3.7/15
Consistency
8.1/10
Raw Quality 46.8/100
× Confidence 0.78 = 36.5

30-Day Momentum

3
-0.4%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-33 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (78%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,723
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,065.08
Current Value
$11,723.63
Period P&L
$-341.45
Max Drawdown
-2.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+5.10%
Worst Trade
-7.13%
Avg Trade Return
+0.03%
Avg Hold Time
7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$94,259.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-341.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$-341.45
Gross Return
-2.83%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.83%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $12,065.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 3:25pm ET $117.62 100 $11,762.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 3:35pm ET $123.62 100 $12,362.00 $12,372.08 +$600.00
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET $121.51 101 $12,273.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $118.04 101 $11,922.04 $12,021.11 $-350.97
(-2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $116.53 103 $12,002.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $108.22 103 $11,146.66 $11,165.69 $-855.42
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET $108.99 102 $11,116.98 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:20am ET $114.46 102 $11,674.92 $11,723.63 +$557.94
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,723.63
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,723.63
Total Return: +17.24%
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