Compendium › Reversion › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-22 to present • 4 trades in period

-2.77%
Last Month Return
$10,301.75
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,595.73
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:55:55

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.6/35
Total Return
5.0/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 17.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 17.7

30-Day Momentum

6
-1.2%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,548
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,595.73
Current Value
$10,301.75
Period P&L
$-293.99
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.39

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+5.25%
Worst Trade
-7.50%
Avg Trade Return
-2.09%
Avg Hold Time
6.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$84,109.44
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-293.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$-293.99
Gross Return
-2.77%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.77%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,595.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $233.80 48 $11,222.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 10:05am ET $216.26 48 $10,380.48 $10,423.42 $-841.92
(-7.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:45am ET $210.88 49 $10,332.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:25am ET $221.95 49 $10,875.55 $10,966.09 +$542.67
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 1:15pm ET $224.49 48 $10,775.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 11:25am ET $208.71 48 $10,018.08 $10,208.65 $-757.44
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $208.28 49 $10,205.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 3:10pm ET $210.18 49 $10,298.82 $10,301.75 +$93.10
(+0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,301.75
Net Profit/Loss: +$301.75
Total Return: +3.02%
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