Compendium › Reversion › PANW
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PANW
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-22 to present • 4 trades in period

+3.42%
Last Month Return
$14,010.40
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$13,547.50
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:59:39

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

42
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
13.9/35
Total Return
13.4/25
Win Rate
9.2/15
Profit Factor
3.9/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality 46.0/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 42.1

30-Day Momentum

13
+2.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.7 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,548
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,547.50
Current Value
$14,010.40
Period P&L
$462.90
Max Drawdown
-10.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.35

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+5.36%
Worst Trade
-7.80%
Avg Trade Return
+1.95%
Avg Hold Time
3.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$109,381.89
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$462.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$462.90
Gross Return
+3.42%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.42%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $13,547.50 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:40am ET $243.58 53 $12,909.74 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:40am ET $256.08 53 $13,571.98 $13,731.15 +$662.24
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
2 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:40am ET $251.99 54 $13,607.46 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:40am ET $265.49 54 $14,336.46 $14,460.15 +$729.00
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $288.97 50 $14,448.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $266.42 50 $13,321.25 $13,332.90 $-1,127.25
(-7.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $265.09 50 $13,254.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $278.64 50 $13,932.00 $14,010.40 +$677.50
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,010.40
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,010.40
Total Return: +40.10%
Back to Reversion