ARKK Reversion's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-06-22 to present • 34 trades in period
+14.95%
Last Year Return
$10,483.83
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$9,120.60
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026
19
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.8/35
Total Return
6.4/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
19.3/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 18.7
30-Day Momentum
9
+1.4%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.4
Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
27,707
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,120.60
Current Value
$10,483.83
Period P&L
$1,363.23
Max Drawdown
-22.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
20 /
14
Best Trade
+6.20%
Worst Trade
-7.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.47%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$231,674.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,363.23
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,363.23
Gross Return
+14.95%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.95%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,120.60 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 12:20pm ET | $67.73 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 1:25pm ET | $68.61 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,239.66 |
+$119.06 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2025 9:50am ET | $74.67 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2025 10:05am ET | $75.75 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,372.50 |
+$132.84 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $71.79 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $71.78 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,371.20 |
$-1.30 (-0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2025 9:45am ET | $75.37 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $76.14 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,466.93 |
+$95.73 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2025 9:45am ET | $72.24 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 12:15pm ET | $73.03 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,570.42 |
+$103.49 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $80.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 10:10am ET | $81.84 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,672.96 |
+$102.54 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $89.22 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:30am ET | $86.94 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,426.75 |
$-246.21 (-2.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $84.83 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:10am ET | $85.96 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,552.18 |
+$125.43 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 10:25am ET | $85.67 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 1:35pm ET | $83.93 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,359.04 |
$-193.14 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $84.66 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 9:40am ET | $85.74 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,477.84 |
+$118.80 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 9:55am ET | $83.16 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 11:20am ET | $81.37 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,275.06 |
$-202.78 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $78.84 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 2:20pm ET | $79.65 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,369.83 |
+$94.77 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $79.53 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 11:35am ET | $77.88 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,176.19 |
$-193.64 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $74.83 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:35am ET | $75.61 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,271.35 |
+$95.16 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:35am ET | $74.49 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:15pm ET | $72.72 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,051.87 |
$-219.48 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $77.78 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $78.48 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,133.65 |
+$81.78 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:50am ET | $81.18 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:15am ET | $82.10 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,236.13 |
+$102.48 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $79.66 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $80.51 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,334.46 |
+$98.33 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $70.77 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $69.11 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,117.00 |
$-217.46 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $68.42 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $66.91 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,916.17 |
$-200.83 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $70.26 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $69.67 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,841.83 |
$-74.34 (-0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $67.66 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 1:40pm ET | $68.34 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,930.23 |
+$88.40 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.06 | 123 | $8,863.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $71.96 | 123 | $8,851.08 | $8,917.93 |
$-12.30 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $72.47 | 123 | $8,913.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:10pm ET | $67.39 | 123 | $8,289.58 | $8,293.70 |
$-624.23 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:15pm ET | $63.67 | 130 | $8,277.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET | $66.89 | 130 | $8,695.70 | $8,711.65 |
+$417.95 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $68.67 | 126 | $8,651.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.92 | 126 | $9,188.07 | $9,247.93 |
+$536.28 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $69.38 | 133 | $9,227.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.53 | 133 | $9,779.49 | $9,799.88 |
+$551.95 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:45pm ET | $76.45 | 128 | $9,785.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:50am ET | $80.46 | 128 | $10,298.24 | $10,312.52 |
+$512.64 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $78.12 | 132 | $10,311.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $75.13 | 132 | $9,917.16 | $9,917.84 |
$-394.68 (-3.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:55pm ET | $76.87 | 129 | $9,916.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 2:55pm ET | $80.17 | 129 | $10,341.93 | $10,343.54 |
+$425.70 (+4.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $78.11 | 132 | $10,311.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.21 | 132 | $10,191.72 | $10,224.08 |
$-119.46 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12.7d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.61 | 131 | $10,167.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 11:15am ET | $81.54 | 131 | $10,681.74 | $10,738.26 |
+$514.18 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $80.59 | 133 | $10,718.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:40pm ET | $74.88 | 133 | $9,959.04 | $9,978.83 |
$-759.43 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $75.69 | 131 | $9,915.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 11:10am ET | $79.54 | 131 | $10,420.39 | $10,483.83 |
+$505.00 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,483.83
Net Profit/Loss:
+$483.83
Total Return:
+4.84%