Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 16:08:48

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
36.7 neutral
20d Trend
-7.0%
5d Trend
-5.4%
EMA20 Dist
-4.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
59%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

48
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
16.6/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
9.2/15
Profit Factor
10.4/15
Consistency
7.1/10
Raw Quality 57.0/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 48.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
22,581
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
262 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,274.96
Current Value
$14,308.60
Period P&L
$4,033.64
Max Drawdown
-9.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.75

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
17 / 5
Best Trade
+5.58%
Worst Trade
-2.03%
Avg Trade Return
+1.62%
Avg Hold Time
4.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$239,063.27
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,033.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,033.64
Gross Return
+39.26%
Net Return (after fees)
+39.26%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 GS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 262 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,274.96 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET $702.86 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Aug 1, 2025 10:30am ET $710.36 0 $0.00 $10,379.96 +$105.00
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET $723.00 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2025 9:50am ET $730.91 0 $0.00 $10,490.70 +$110.74
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 11:30am ET $765.07 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Oct 13, 2025 9:30am ET $782.35 0 $0.00 $10,715.34 +$224.64
(+2.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $757.47 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Oct 14, 2025 10:35am ET $767.90 0 $0.00 $10,861.23 +$145.89
(+1.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $781.30 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 9:55am ET $791.22 0 $0.00 $10,990.19 +$128.96
(+1.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:55am ET $786.94 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 9:35am ET $770.98 0 $0.00 $10,782.71 $-207.48
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 9:40am ET $761.30 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 11:55am ET $771.05 0 $0.00 $10,919.21 +$136.50
(+1.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET $926.06 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET $928.81 0 $0.00 $10,949.46 +$30.25
(+0.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET $910.54 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:10am ET $922.00 0 $0.00 $11,086.98 +$137.52
(+1.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $882.84 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:20am ET $893.27 0 $0.00 $11,212.08 +$125.10
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 11:00am ET $934.36 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:35am ET $915.63 0 $0.00 $11,006.05 $-206.03
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET $883.36 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET $896.10 0 $0.00 $11,158.93 +$152.88
(+1.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $811.00 13 $10,543.00
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $802.14 13 $10,427.79 $11,043.72 $-115.21
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 2:30pm ET $805.29 13 $10,468.77
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 11:05am ET $847.45 13 $11,016.79 $11,591.73 +$548.01
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 1:00pm ET $834.11 13 $10,843.43
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $864.76 13 $11,241.88 $11,990.18 +$398.45
(+3.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $857.36 13 $11,145.68
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $905.24 13 $11,768.12 $12,612.62 +$622.44
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET $903.37 13 $11,743.81
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $923.93 13 $12,011.09 $12,879.90 +$267.28
(+2.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 1:05pm ET $925.93 13 $12,037.09
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 1:05pm ET $925.53 13 $12,031.89 $12,874.70 $-5.20
(-0.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
19 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:55am ET $933.73 13 $12,138.49
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $948.86 13 $12,335.24 $13,071.46 +$196.76
(+1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
20 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:30am ET $936.54 13 $12,175.02
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $986.22 13 $12,820.92 $13,717.36 +$645.90
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
21 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 3:05pm ET $999.36 13 $12,991.68
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 3:05pm ET $1,048.09 13 $13,625.17 $14,350.85 +$633.49
(+4.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 3:35pm ET $1,066.91 13 $13,869.83
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 3:35pm ET $1,063.66 13 $13,827.58 $14,308.60 $-42.25
(-0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,308.60
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,308.60
Total Return: +43.09%
Back to Reversion