Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-20 15:38:10

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 82%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 9.6/100
× Confidence 0.82 = 7.8

30-Day Momentum

3
-4.2%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (82%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,076
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,213.31
Current Value
$8,499.95
Period P&L
$-1,713.37
Max Drawdown
-5.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.18

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
12 / 11
Best Trade
+6.02%
Worst Trade
-7.89%
Avg Trade Return
-0.73%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$204,148.35
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,713.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,713.37
Gross Return
-16.78%
Net Return (after fees)
-16.78%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,213.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 20, 2025 9:30am ET $278.05 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jun 20, 2025 9:40am ET $282.33 0 $0.00 $10,367.57 +$154.26
(+1.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2025 9:30am ET $258.76 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2025 9:55am ET $253.25 0 $0.00 $10,147.37 $-220.20
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 23, 2025 9:30am ET $271.79 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Oct 23, 2025 9:50am ET $276.98 0 $0.00 $10,339.44 +$192.07
(+1.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2025 10:15am ET $302.10 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Oct 31, 2025 10:50am ET $306.12 0 $0.00 $10,476.11 +$136.67
(+1.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET $296.42 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Nov 4, 2025 9:40am ET $300.69 0 $0.00 $10,625.56 +$149.45
(+1.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET $305.45 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 9:35am ET $306.92 0 $0.00 $10,675.54 +$49.98
(+0.5%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 9:45am ET $297.40 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 9:55am ET $300.91 0 $0.00 $10,798.57 +$123.03
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 9:45am ET $296.97 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 10:45am ET $300.26 0 $0.00 $10,916.92 +$118.35
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $297.60 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 3:10pm ET $291.39 0 $0.00 $10,693.36 $-223.56
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $307.51 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET $300.13 0 $0.00 $10,442.44 $-250.92
(-2.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $283.43 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:35am ET $286.35 0 $0.00 $10,547.51 +$105.07
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 9:35am ET $267.59 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:45am ET $262.21 0 $0.00 $10,337.88 $-209.63
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $255.84 40 $10,233.60
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $248.71 40 $9,948.20 $10,052.48 $-285.40
(-2.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $254.14 39 $9,911.46
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET $236.15 39 $9,209.85 $9,350.87 $-701.61
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:55pm ET $238.13 39 $9,286.88
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 12:55pm ET $236.48 39 $9,222.72 $9,286.71 $-64.16
(-0.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 2:10pm ET $231.16 40 $9,246.40
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET $244.66 40 $9,786.40 $9,826.71 +$540.00
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:30pm ET $249.95 39 $9,747.86
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $230.82 39 $9,001.98 $9,080.84 $-745.88
(-7.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET $227.53 39 $8,873.67
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:40am ET $231.74 39 $9,037.86 $9,245.03 +$164.19
(+1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
19 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:40am ET $228.34 40 $9,133.60
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:40am ET $219.07 40 $8,762.88 $8,874.31 $-370.72
(-4.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
20 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:40am ET $218.57 40 $8,742.80
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $231.72 40 $9,268.80 $9,400.31 +$526.00
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
21 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 3:00pm ET $254.40 36 $9,158.58
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:20am ET $268.36 36 $9,661.14 $9,902.87 +$502.56
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 2:15pm ET $319.97 30 $9,599.10
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $294.71 30 $8,841.30 $9,145.07 $-757.80
(-7.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:30am ET $283.10 32 $9,059.20
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:35pm ET $262.94 32 $8,414.08 $8,499.95 $-645.12
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,499.95
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,500.05
Total Return: -15.00%
Back to Reversion