MU Reversion's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 56 trades in period
+54.50%
Last Year Return
$19,674.91
Current Value
71%
Win Rate
$12,734.45
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
67
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
27.3/35
Total Return
16.5/25
Win Rate
12.0/15
Profit Factor
6.0/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
68.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 67.4
30-Day Momentum
70
+41.6%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
6
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 94.3
Conf: 0.74×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
39,096
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
260 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps
Data Gap Notice
The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.
2025-11-28 (no data)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$12,734.45
Current Value
$19,674.91
Period P&L
$6,940.46
Max Drawdown
-12.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
56
Winners / Losers
40 /
16
Best Trade
+9.59%
Worst Trade
-7.42%
Avg Trade Return
+0.86%
Avg Hold Time
22.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$386,435.89
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$6,940.46
Net P&L (after fees)
$6,940.46
Gross Return
+54.50%
Net Return (after fees)
+54.50%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 260 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 56 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $12,734.45 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $93.88 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 30, 2025 11:10am ET | $94.97 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,881.60 |
+$147.15 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $120.12 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $122.16 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,099.77 |
+$218.17 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $117.50 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2025 10:00am ET | $118.82 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,246.29 |
+$146.52 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $117.34 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $111.43 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,584.38 |
$-661.91 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2025 9:35am ET | $111.29 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2025 10:05am ET | $112.43 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,713.15 |
+$128.77 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2025 9:40am ET | $110.79 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2025 12:45pm ET | $108.57 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,460.07 |
$-253.08 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2025 9:35am ET | $109.16 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 25, 2025 9:55am ET | $110.28 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,587.75 |
+$127.68 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $109.59 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2025 10:00am ET | $110.74 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,718.85 |
+$131.10 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $105.72 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $106.23 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,780.05 |
+$61.20 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $121.46 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $122.60 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,899.23 |
+$119.18 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $117.75 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 9:45am ET | $115.38 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,641.23 |
$-258.00 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $114.87 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2025 9:50am ET | $116.30 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,797.98 |
+$156.75 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $162.50 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $162.85 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,825.47 |
+$27.49 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $162.72 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2025 12:05pm ET | $159.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,545.44 |
$-280.03 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $156.25 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 10:05am ET | $157.99 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,685.04 |
+$139.60 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $190.22 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 11:40am ET | $192.54 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,838.16 |
+$153.12 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $185.56 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:55am ET | $181.51 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,558.71 |
$-279.45 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $202.85 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $193.94 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,015.50 |
$-543.21 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 9:35am ET | $193.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 10:20am ET | $196.55 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,235.60 |
+$220.10 (+1.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $221.27 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 11:05am ET | $223.77 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,373.03 |
+$137.43 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $221.35 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 11:30am ET | $216.80 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,122.78 |
$-250.25 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $233.23 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $235.93 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,260.39 |
+$137.61 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $242.62 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 10:30am ET | $244.34 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,346.39 |
+$86.00 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $233.50 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 10:25am ET | $236.68 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,511.75 |
+$165.36 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $242.44 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $231.28 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,942.33 |
$-569.42 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 9:35am ET | $232.47 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 11:00am ET | $227.51 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,689.37 |
$-252.96 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $204.18 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:55am ET | $206.85 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,841.56 |
+$152.19 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $232.39 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $227.65 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,604.56 |
$-237.00 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 9:35am ET | $227.22 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $236.77 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,091.69 |
+$487.13 (+4.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $249.45 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:25am ET | $244.35 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,847.13 |
$-244.56 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:40am ET | $228.94 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 1:40pm ET | $224.34 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,612.29 |
$-234.84 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 9:35am ET | $286.25 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.59 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,265.89 |
+$653.60 (+5.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $328.58 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $321.60 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,007.63 |
$-258.26 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $379.78 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $384.44 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,152.09 |
+$144.46 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $389.13 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $393.05 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,273.77 |
+$121.68 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:35am ET | $426.31 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:45am ET | $431.81 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,427.93 |
+$154.16 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:05pm ET | $415.17 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $420.93 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,594.88 |
+$166.95 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $418.51 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:45am ET | $425.80 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,813.58 |
+$218.70 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $403.66 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $408.46 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,962.40 |
+$148.82 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $367.34 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $373.58 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,180.80 |
+$218.40 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $372.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $377.50 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,352.30 |
+$171.50 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 11:20am ET | $414.93 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 11:40am ET | $419.37 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,494.38 |
+$142.08 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $397.77 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $404.12 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,704.24 |
+$209.86 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:30pm ET | $385.52 | 35 | $13,493.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $357.86 | 35 | $12,525.10 | $12,736.14 |
$-968.10 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 12:05pm ET | $410.74 | 31 | $12,732.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $446.54 | 31 | $13,842.74 | $13,845.94 |
+$1,109.80 (+8.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $424.00 | 32 | $13,568.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:15am ET | $449.11 | 32 | $14,371.36 | $14,649.30 |
+$803.36 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $411.02 | 35 | $14,385.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $381.95 | 35 | $13,368.25 | $13,631.85 |
$-1,017.45 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $367.71 | 37 | $13,605.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $340.44 | 37 | $12,596.28 | $12,622.68 |
$-1,009.17 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 11:50am ET | $316.86 | 39 | $12,357.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:00pm ET | $332.77 | 39 | $12,978.03 | $13,242.97 |
+$620.29 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.91 | 38 | $12,954.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $358.14 | 38 | $13,609.32 | $13,897.86 |
+$654.89 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $377.93 | 36 | $13,605.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $414.18 | 36 | $14,910.66 | $15,203.04 |
+$1,305.18 (+9.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $410.40 | 37 | $15,184.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $436.00 | 37 | $16,132.00 | $16,150.24 |
+$947.20 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:05am ET | $449.54 | 35 | $15,733.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $474.45 | 35 | $16,605.92 | $17,022.44 |
+$872.20 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $475.27 | 35 | $16,634.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $499.12 | 35 | $17,469.20 | $17,857.02 |
+$834.58 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $502.27 | 35 | $17,579.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $527.40 | 35 | $18,459.00 | $18,736.57 |
+$879.55 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 56 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $511.03 | 36 | $18,397.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $537.09 | 36 | $19,335.42 | $19,674.91 |
+$938.34 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$19,674.91
Net Profit/Loss:
+$9,674.91
Total Return:
+96.75%