Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 16:11:28

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.2/10
Raw Quality 4.5/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 3.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
30,052
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$9,734.70
Current Value
$6,826.32
Period P&L
$-2,908.38
Max Drawdown
-10.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.40

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
9 / 18
Best Trade
+5.12%
Worst Trade
-9.26%
Avg Trade Return
-1.27%
Avg Hold Time
3.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$183,098.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,908.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,908.38
Gross Return
-29.88%
Net Return (after fees)
-29.88%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,734.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2025 11:10am ET $129.27 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2025 11:10am ET $127.85 0 $0.00 $9,627.82 $-106.88
(-1.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2025 10:30am ET $124.88 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2025 11:45am ET $126.22 0 $0.00 $9,731.12 +$103.30
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 18, 2025 9:30am ET $121.73 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2025 9:30am ET $121.30 0 $0.00 $9,697.55 $-33.57
(-0.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2025 9:45am ET $120.87 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2025 9:45am ET $121.45 0 $0.00 $9,743.87 +$46.32
(+0.5%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2025 10:10am ET $121.65 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Sep 12, 2025 10:10am ET $119.58 0 $0.00 $9,578.31 $-165.56
(-1.7%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Oct 1, 2025 9:45am ET $116.51 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Oct 1, 2025 10:15am ET $117.70 0 $0.00 $9,675.91 +$97.60
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 22, 2025 9:30am ET $114.10 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2025 11:10am ET $111.80 0 $0.00 $9,482.93 $-192.98
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 9:50am ET $112.44 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 9:50am ET $111.07 0 $0.00 $9,367.26 $-115.67
(-1.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET $111.97 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 12:00pm ET $109.42 0 $0.00 $9,155.54 $-211.72
(-2.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET $104.55 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2025 10:10am ET $102.31 0 $0.00 $8,961.09 $-194.45
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET $100.40 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 9:40am ET $102.44 0 $0.00 $9,142.65 +$181.56
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET $98.12 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 10:20am ET $95.96 0 $0.00 $8,941.30 $-201.35
(-2.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET $83.18 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 9:40am ET $84.08 0 $0.00 $9,037.87 +$96.57
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET $84.01 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET $85.46 0 $0.00 $9,192.53 +$154.66
(+1.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET $83.09 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 9:35am ET $83.67 0 $0.00 $9,255.64 +$63.11
(+0.7%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 9:30am ET $78.00 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:30am ET $76.17 0 $0.00 $9,039.64 $-216.00
(-2.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 10:10am ET $97.50 92 $8,969.54
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 11:10am ET $95.33 92 $8,770.36 $8,840.46 $-199.18
(-2.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 1:45pm ET $95.06 92 $8,745.52
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 1:45pm ET $93.44 92 $8,596.94 $8,691.88 $-148.58
(-1.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:30pm ET $92.92 93 $8,641.10
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET $97.67 93 $9,083.31 $9,134.09 +$442.21
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 1:20pm ET $98.64 92 $9,074.88
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 1:30pm ET $103.62 92 $9,533.43 $9,592.64 +$458.55
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET $105.86 90 $9,526.95
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $96.05 90 $8,644.68 $8,710.37 $-882.27
(-9.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:10am ET $94.23 92 $8,669.16
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 11:10am ET $93.08 92 $8,562.99 $8,604.20 $-106.17
(-1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
23 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 12:15pm ET $93.55 91 $8,513.05
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:35am ET $86.89 91 $7,907.44 $7,998.59 $-605.61
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
24 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 1:00pm ET $88.44 90 $7,959.60
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $86.38 90 $7,774.20 $7,813.19 $-185.40
(-2.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.9d held
25 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 9:30am ET $88.49 88 $7,787.12
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $85.76 88 $7,547.32 $7,573.39 $-239.80
(-3.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $84.32 89 $7,504.04
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $81.68 89 $7,269.52 $7,338.87 $-234.52
(-3.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:50am ET $80.72 90 $7,264.80
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 10:25am ET $75.03 90 $6,752.25 $6,826.32 $-512.55
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,826.32
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,173.68
Total Return: -31.74%
Back to Reversion